Table 3.
Random-effects regression analyses* for potential short-term and long-term prognostic factors with PGICS and NDI as outcome, n=89
| Potential prognostic factor | n/obs† | OR 3–15 m‡ | 95% CI | P value | P-eff.m.§ |
| PGICS | |||||
| Age | 89/263 | 0.92 | 0.84 to 1.01 | 0.08 | 0.75 |
| Neck disability | 89/263 | 1.08 | 1.01 to 1.16 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| Average pain intensity | 89/263 | 1.60 | 1.00 to 2.55 | 0.05 | 1.00 |
| Depression | 88/260 | 1.04 | 0.92 to 1.19 | 0.50 | 0.07 |
| Fear of movement | 89/263 | 0.98 | 0.87 to 1.09 | 0.67 | 0.48 |
| Catastrophising | 89/263 | 1.06 | 0.94 to 1.20 | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| Social support | 88/260 | 1.08 | 0.88 to 1.33 | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| Recovery expectations | 85/253 | 1.74 | 0.71 to 4.25 | 0.22 | 0.47 |
| Chronic widespread pain | 89/263 | 0.45 | |||
| No | 1.0 | ||||
| Yes | 1.99 | 0.46 to 8.66 | 0.36 | ||
| Leisure physical activity | 89/263 | 0.36 | |||
| No/low intensity | 1.0 | ||||
| Moderate/high intensity | 0.77 | 0.16 to 3.65 | 0.75 | ||
| Physical workload | 88/260 | 0.64 | |||
| Mostly sedentary | 1.0 | ||||
| Low to heavy workload | 1.35 | 0.31 to 5.86 | 0.69 | ||
| Dual-working | 85/251 | 0.41 | |||
| No | 1.0 | ||||
| Yes | 0.77 | 0.17 to 3.39 | 0.73 | ||
| NDI | |||||
| Age | 89/262 | 0.96 | 0.90 to 1.02 | 0.20 | 0.68 |
| Neck disability | 89/262 | 1.05 | 1.01 to 1.11 | 0.02 | 0.31 |
| Average pain intensity | 89/262 | 1.17 | 0.84 to 1.63 | 0.35 | 0.67 |
| Depression | 88/259 | 0.94 | 0.86 to 1.03 | 0.17 | 0.75 |
| Fear of movement | 89/262 | 0.99 | 0.92 to 1.07 | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| Catastrophising | 89/262 | 0.03 | |||
| 3 m¶ | 1.10 | 0.98 to 1.24 | 0.12 | ||
| 15 m¶ | 0.93 | 0.83 to 1.05 | 0.23 | ||
| Social support | 88/259 | 1.08 | 0.93 to 1.26 | 0.32 | 0.72 |
| Recovery expectations | 85/253 | 0.73 | 0.39 to 1.37 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Chronic widespread pain | 89/262 | 0.10 | |||
| No | 1.0 | ||||
| Yes | 0.72 | 0.26 to 1.99 | 0.53 | ||
| Leisure physical activity | 89/262 | 0.36 | |||
| No/low intensity | 1.0 | ||||
| Moderate/high intensity | 0.48 | 0.16 to 1.43 | 0.19 | ||
| Physical workload | 88/259 | 0.06 | |||
| Mostly sedentary | 1.0 | ||||
| Low to heavy workload | 1.16 | 0.41 to 3.25 | 0.78 | ||
| Dual-working | 85/250 | 0.16 | |||
| No | 1.0 | ||||
| Yes | 0.55 | 0.19 to 1.58 | 0.27 |
An OR>1 reflects a higher odds of clinical important improvement and an OR<1 reflects a lower odds of clinical important improvement.
Potential prognostic factors included in the development of the predictive models are presented in italics.
*Data from all three follow-ups (3, 9 and 15 months) were used in the analyses.
†Number of participants in the analyses/number of outcome observations in the analyses.
‡ OR for clinically important improvement between 3 and 15 months.
§P value for the effect modification over time between 3 and 15 months from baseline.
¶Results (OR, 95% CI and p values) for clinically important improvement at 3 and 15 months, respectively.
NDI, normalised Neck Disability Index; PGICS, Patient Global Impression of Change Scale.