Table 1.
Baseline characteristics and risk factors in derivation and validation cohorts
| Variable | Derivation cohort (n = 700) | Validation cohort (n = 194) |
|---|---|---|
| Age, years (IQR) | 48 (37–63) | 49 (38–61) |
| Male sex, N (%) | 435 (62.1) | 127 (65.5) |
| Duration of symptoms, days | 1.83 ± 0.79 | 1.67 ± 0.78 |
| SIRS, N (%) | 272 (38.9) | 82 (42.3) |
| Etiology | ||
| Biliary, N (%) | 299 (42.7) | 74 (38.1) |
| Alcohol, N (%) | 96 (13.7) | 12 (6.2) |
| Hypertriglyceridemia, N (%) | 37 (5.3) | 31 (16.0) |
| Idiopathic, N (%) | 246 (35.1) | 73 (37.6) |
| Other, N (%) | 22 (3.1) | 4 (2) |
| Laboratory findings | ||
| Hematocrit | 0.42 (0.38–0.46) | 0.43 (0.39–0.46) |
| Platelets (109/L) | 197 (158–233) | 206 (169–248) |
| Prothrombin time, s (IQR) | 13.8 (13.1–14.6) | 13.7 (13.2–14.5) |
| Albumin, g/L (IQR) | 36.2 (32.9–39.7) | 36.6 (32.7–39.7) |
| Bilirubin, mg/dL (IQR) | 1.16 (0.79–1.81) | 1.11 (0.76–1.75) |
| ALT, U/L (IQR) | 40 (19–107) | 33 (18–91) |
| AST, U/L (IQR) | 36 (21–85) | 33 (23–73) |
| Glucose, mg/dL (IQR) | 144 (117–193) | 139 (112–191) |
| BUN, mg/dL (IQR) | 13.4 (10.4–17.4) | 14.0 (10.6–17.9) |
| Pleural effusion, N (%) | 135 (19.4) | 83 (42.8) |
| Clinical outcomes | ||
| Patients with SAP, N (%) | 68 (9.7) | 18 (9.3) |
| Number of POF, N (%) | ||
| One organ failure | 38/68 (55.9) | 7/18 (38.9) |
| Two organ failure | 19/68 (27.9) | 6/18 (33.3) |
| Three organ failure | 11/68 (16.2) | 5/18 (27.8) |
| Type of POF | ||
| Respiratory failure, N (%) | 56/68 (82.4) | 16/18 (88.9) |
| Renal failure, N (%) | 24/68 (35.3) | 10/18 (55.6) |
| Cardiovascular failure, N (%) | 29/68 (42.7) | 8/18 (44.4) |
| Length of hospital stay, days (IQR) | 10 (7–9) | 11 (7–17) |
| Hospital mortality, N (%) | 11 (1.6) | 2 (1.0) |
Data were mean ± standard deviation, or numbers and percentages, or median (25th–75th percentile), as appropriate
N, number; IQR, interquartile range; BMI, body mass index; SIRS, systemic inflammatory response syndrome; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; BUN, blood urea nitrogen; SAP, severe acute pancreatitis; POF, persistent organ failure