Table 4.
Results of model selection using citizen science to explain CDC reported Lyme disease cases in 2016
| Model | Model parameters | df | Deviance | p | Null deviance | Residual deviance | AIC | ΔAIC | MAE | RMSE | NRMSE | ρ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 262.7 | 253.3 | 2498 | – | 94.1 | 131.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | ||||
| I. scapularis Submissions | 1 | 9.4 | 0.002 | |||||||||
| 2 | 430.2 | 242.4 | 2398.2 | 99.8 | 66.5 | 107.3 | 0.91 | 0.77 | ||||
| I. scapularis Submissions | 1 | 15.6 | < 0.00001 | |||||||||
| State | 8 | 147.9 | < 0.00001 | |||||||||
| Submissions: State | 8 | 24.4 | 0.002 | |||||||||
| 3 | 536.9 | 239.4 | 2345.3 | 152.7 | 60.7 | 101.7 | 0.86 | 0.83 | ||||
| I. scapularis Submissions | 1 | 19.6 | < 0.00001 | |||||||||
| State | 8 | 185.9 | < 0.00001 | |||||||||
| Population | 1 | 61.2 | < 0.00001 | |||||||||
| Submissions: State | 8 | 30.9 | 0.00001 |