Table 3.
Predictive Accuracy of Baseline Characteristics for Transitioning to SLE at Follow-up in Those Recruited In the First Phase of Recruitment.
| Baseline Characteristic(s) | N (%) with Characteristic(s) | Positive predictive value | Negative Predictive Value | Sensitivity | Specificity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Using Questionnaire Data Alone | |||||
| SLE-CSQ+a | 127 (33.9%) | 15.0% | 98.8% | 86.4% | 69.4% |
| Female | 313 (83.5%) | 6.4% | 96.8% | 90.9% | 17.0% |
| SLE-CSQ+a and Female | 118 (31.5%) | 16.1% | 98.8% | 86.4% | 72.0% |
| Using Questionnaire Data and Blood Draw for Measurement of ANA | |||||
| ANA+ | 179 (47.7%) | 10.1% | 98.0% | 81.8% | 54.4% |
| ANA+ and SLE− CSQ+a | 78 (20.8%) | 20.5% | 98.0% | 72.7% | 82.4% |
| ANA+ and Female | 159 (42.4%) | 10.7% | 97.7% | 77.3% | 59.8% |
| ANA+, SLE− CSQ+a, and Female | 75 (20.0%) | 21.3% | 98.0% | 72.7% | 83.3% |
| ANA+ and Positive Photosensitivity from CSQ | 46 (12.3%) | 17.4% | 95.7% | 36.4% | 89.2% |
| ANA+ and Positive Raynaud from CSQ | 76 (20.3%) | 14.5% | 96.5% | 50.0% | 81.6% |
| Using Blood Draw for Measurement of ANA and Medical Records to confirm ACR Criteria | |||||
| ANA+ and Immunologic Disorder by Confirmed ACR Criteria | 7 (1.9%) | 57.1% | 95.1% | 18.2% | 99.2% |
| ANA+ and Positive Photosensitivity by Confirmed ACR Criteria | 8 (2.1%) | 50.0% | 95.1% | 18.2% | 98.9% |
| ANA+ and Positive Clinicalb ACR Criteria | 20 (5.3%) | 55.0% | 96.9% | 50.0% | 97.5% |
ANA, anti-nuclear antibodies. CSQ, Connective Tissue Disease Screening Questionnaire.
a.
SLE-CSQ+: either probable or possible SLE by CSQ score.
b.
Clinical ACR Criteria includes malar or discoid rash, oral ulcers, photosensitivity, arthritis, renal disorder including proteinuria and cellular changes, neurologic disorder including seizures and psychosis, and serositis including pericarditis or pleuritis.