Table 1. Strengths and limitations of studies included in review.
| Authors | Year of pub’ | SDG 3.4 2030/WHO 2025 (1) target | CVD/NCD/all deaths | Strengths/limitations of papers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Su et al. (9) | 2017 | WHO | CVD | Analysis of single risk factors without consideration of multiple risk factors on a condition |
| Assumption of prevalence of hyperlipidemia in 2009 carried forward to future years | ||||
| Used 5-year calculation of age-period-cohort analysis instead of single year calculation. Authors believe reduces likelihood of errors | ||||
| Li et al. (13) | 2017 | SDG and WHO | NCD | Used GBD 2013, with limitations in estimation of deaths, mortality and attributable burden as other papers using GBD 2013 data |
| Relative risk specific to Chinese population may be different to GBD, and could affect attributable burden of risk factors and the size and direction of associations | ||||
| Unable to take into account unattributable deaths | ||||
| Many risk factors not included that could affect the prevalence of CVD e.g., other dietary intakes | ||||
| Cobiac et al. (17) | 2017 | SDG and WHO | NCD | Many risk factors not included that could affect the prevalence of CVD e.g., other dietary intakes |
| Data is based on limited evidence on the associations between risk factors and impact of NCDs | ||||
| González-Pier et al. (11) | 2016 | SDG | All | Unforeseen factors could affect future trends, and analysis assumed that 2010 mortality rates continued into the future. Trends from 2000–2014 also used to avoid coding biases as ICD-10 introduced in Mexico in 1998 |
| Mexican specific data set combined with UN population data | ||||
| Sacco et al. (18) | 2016 | WHO | CVD | Used GBD 2013, with limitations in estimation of deaths, mortality and attributable burden as other papers using GBD 2013 data. Limited databases in LMICs |
| Analysis of single risk factors without consideration of multiple risk factors on a condition | ||||
| GBD (20) | 2016 | SDG | NCD | GBD has access to local country specific data sources due to their extensive global collaborative network. Variable quality of data, but multiple sources of data used e.g., vital registration data, verbal autopsy data and surveillance data |
| Uncertainty analysis undertaken | ||||
| Multiple co-variates accounted for | ||||
| Ordunez et al. (12) | 2015 | WHO | CVD | Limited databases in LMICs, especially with death rates and cause of deaths |
| Small numbers in countries with smaller populations should be interpreted with caution | ||||
| Roth et al. (14) | 2015 | WHO | CVD | Used GBD 2013, with limitations in estimation of deaths, mortality and attributable burden as other papers using GBD 2013 data |
| Analysis of single risk factors without consideration of multiple risk factors on a condition | ||||
| Some countries (e.g., LMICs) have issues with reliability of data due to lack of data or inaccuracies | ||||
| Assumptions including changes in BP would result in shift in whole distribution of BP rather than only those with hypertension | ||||
| Relative risk may not be accurate to the specific countries actual relative risk | ||||
| UN lifetables used for population projections do not take into account the CVD reduction that may have happened | ||||
| Norheim et al. (10) | 2015 | SDG | All | Some countries (e.g., LMICs) have issues with reliability of data due to lack of data or inaccuracies |
| Limited databases in LMICs, especially with death rates and cause of deaths | ||||
| Kontis et al. (16) | 2014 | WHO | NCD | Some countries (e.g., LMICs) have issues with reliability of data due to lack of data or inaccuracies |
| Relative risk was derived from observational studies, with a possibility of residual confounding, but only used relative risk from studies with well-adjusted studies | ||||
| Analysis of single risk factors without consideration of multiple risk factors on a condition | ||||
| Unforeseen factors could affect future trends, and base year in analysis was 2010, so there may be changes to risk factors since this time | ||||
| Kontis et al. (15) | 2015 | WHO | NCD | See Kontis et al. 2014 (16) |
| Santosa et al. (19) | 2015 | WHO | NCD | Swedish specific data |
| Lack of data on obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity so was not included in analysis |
NCD, non-communicable diseases; CVD, cardiovascular disease; SDG, Sustainable Development Goal.