TABLE 3.

Prognostic Value of Galectin-3 in Predicting Death and Heart Failure after Incident Myocardial Infarction

Model	Reference model*	Reference model + Gal-3	Reference model + sST2	[Reference model + sST2] + Gal-3
Death
Calibration
Likelihood ratio test	-	P<0.001†	P<0.001†	P<0.001‡
AIC	5951.6	5857.3	5829.0	5784.8
BIC	5972.5	5882.4	5854.1	5814.1
Group-based calibration	P=0.009	P=0.20	P=0.64	P=0.61
Discrimination
C-statistic (95% CI)	0.79 (0.77–0.81)	0.81 (0.79–0.84)	0.82 (0.80–0.84)	0.83 (0.81–0.85)
Reclassification
Continuous NRI   (95% CI)	-	0.40 (0.27–0.55)	0.59 ( 0.50–0.66)	0.36(0.22–0.44)
Event NRI (95% CI)	-	0.08 (−0.01–0.19)	0.16 (0.10–0.23)	0.08(−0.02–0.13)
Nonevent NRI (95% CI)	-	0.32 (0.28–0.40)	0.43 (0.38–0.48)	0.28(0.16–0.38)
Heart failure
Calibration
Likelihood ratio test		P<0.001†	P<0.001†	P<0.001‡
AIC	4733.1	4703.7	4671.2	4661.1
BIC	4756.6	4731.1	4698.6	4692.3
Group-based calibration	P=0.03	P=0.31	P=0.03	P=0.006
Discrimination
C-statistic (95% CI)	0.76 (0.74–0.79)	0.77 (0.75–0.80)	0.79 (0.77–0.81)	0.80 (0.77–0.82)
Reclassification
Continuous NRI   (95% CI)	-	0.32 (0.20–0.40)	0.48 ( 0.35–0.60)	0.17 (0.09–0.27)
Event NRI (95% CI)	-	0.10 (0.03– 0.13)	0.16 (0.08–0.23)	0.02 (−0.01–0.08)
Nonevent NRI (95% CI)	-	0.22 (0.18–0.28)	0.31 (0.23–0.37)	0.14 (0.06–0.19)

^*Reference model for death includes age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index and maximum troponin T. Reference model for heart failure includes age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index maximum troponin T, and heart failure prior to myocardial infarction.

^†Compared to reference model.

^‡Compared to reference model + sST2.

AIC denotes Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; CI, confidence interval; Gal-3, galectin-3; NRI, net reclassification index; sST2, soluble suppression of tumorigenicity-2.