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. 2019 May 13;173(7):657–662. doi: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2019.1078

Table 3. Sensitivity Analyses of the Probability That Augmented Locked Storage Prevents a Death That Would Have Otherwise Occurreda.

Probability of Augmented Locked Storage Incidence Rate Ratio Deaths Prevented, Median (IQR) [Range]
Median (IQR) [Range] Significant Repetitions, %b
43% Probability That Safe Storage Would Prevent a Death That Would Have Otherwise Occurred
10% 0.97 (0.96-0.97) [0.95-0.98] 0 33 (30-37) [17-54]
20% 0.93 (0.93-0.94) [0.90-0.96] 0.6 68 (62-72) [41-100]
30% 0.90 (0.89-0.91) [0.87-0.93] 93.7 101 (94-108) [71-129]
40% 0.87 (0.86-0.87) [0.83-0.90] 100 134 (128-141) [102-175]
50% 0.83 (0.83-0.84) [0.79-0.87] 100 167 (159-175) [129-208]
78% Probability That Safe Storage Would Prevent a Death That Would Have Otherwise Occurred
10% 0.94 (0.93-0.95) [0.92-0.96] 0 60 (55-66) [36-84]
20% 0.88 (0.87-0.89) [0.84-0.91] 100 122 (115-129) [89-158]
30% 0.82 (0.81-0.82) [0.78-0.86] 100 183 (176-192) [144-225]
40% 0.76 (0.75-0.77) [0.72-0.80] 100 244 (235-253) [202-283]
50% 0.70 (0.69-0.71) [0.65-0.74] 100 306 (296-315) [265-356]

Abbreviation: IQR, interquartile range.

a

Each row represents a simulation; 1000 repetitions were estimated per simulation.

b

Percentage of repetitions of a given simulation where the upper bound of the CI for the incidence rate ratio is less than 1.