Study ID	Rate (diabetes cases/1000 person‐years (95% CI))
	Follow‐up (years)	NGT cohort	'Prediabetes' cohort	IFG6.1 cohort	IFG5.6 cohort	IGT cohort	IFG/IGT cohort	Elevated HbA1c cohort	Elevated HbA1c/IFG cohort
Anjana 2015	9.1	22.2 (19.4–25.4)	78.9 (68.0–90.9)	—	61.0 (42.1–85.0)	67.8 (54.6–83.0)	133.6 (103.1– 169.3)	—	—
Bae 2011	4	—	—	—	—	—	—	Per 100 person‐years: HbA1c5.7: 5.6 HbA1c6.0: 14.0	—
Bonora 2011	15	10 years: 4.3 (2.7–5.9)	—	10 years: 37.0 (20.2–53.8)	—	10 years: 17.0 (5.3–28.7)	10 years: 49.2 (17.9–80.5)	HbA1c6.0: 25.8	—
De Abreu 2015	10	—	—	—	18.1 (10.7–28.2)	—	—	—	—
Derakhshan 2016	11.7	—	30.3	6.5 years: 69.4 (56.0–86.1)	6.5 years: 39.5 (34.4–45.4)	6.5 years: 41.6 (36.1–47.9)	—	—	—
Dowse 1991	6.2	10.5	—	—	—	40.4	—	—	—
Forouhi 2007	10	2.4 (1.2–4.8) 4 years: 2.64 (1.23–4.05)	—	17.5 (12.5–24.5)	10.6 (8.1–13.9) (IFG5.6: FPG 5.6–6.9)	4 years: 22.5 (20.4–24.6)	—	—	—
Han 2017	12	12.3	IFG or IGT: 58.0	—	i‐IFG5.6: 51.3	i‐IGT: 53.1	114.4	10 years: HbA1c5.7: 43.2	—
Heianza 2012	5	2.3	—	104	34.6	—	—	HbA1c5.7: 51.0 HbA1c6.0: 129.2	HbA1c5.7 and IFG5.6: 30.6 HbA1c6.0 and IFG5.6: 34.4
Janghorbani 2015	6.8	3.1 (1.5–4.7) 2.3 years: 4.6 (1.28–11.7)	—	—	16.3 (10.3–24.4) 2.3 years: i‐IFG5.6: 50.7 (20.7–102.0)	25.9 (17.0–37.7) 2.3 years: i‐IGT: 99.7 (77.1–126.0)	57.9 (46.1–71.7)	—	—
Jiamjarasrangsi 2008a	2.6	—	—	—	31.5 (11.4–86.8)	—	—	—	—
Latifi 2016	5	21.9	—	—	34.5	—	—	—	—
Li 2003	5	18.8	—	93.7	—	60.7	117	—	—
Ligthart 2016	14.7	—	—	43.0 (39.2–47.2)	—	—	—	—	—
Liu 2008	5	9	—	—	22.5	—	—	—	—
Magliano 2008	5	0.2 (0.2–0.3) (incidence percent per years)	—	i‐IFG6.1: 2.6 (1.8–3.4) (incidence percent per years)	—	i‐IGT: 3.5 (2.9–4.2) (incidence percent per years)	—	—	—
Meigs 2003	5, 10	Per 100 person‐years (annualised rate): FPG ≥ 7.0: 0.64 (0.32–1.13) 2‐h PG ≥ 11.1: 2.77 (2.01–3.71)	—	—	—	—	Per 100 person‐years (annualised rate): IFG or IGT FPG ≥ 7.0: 0.98 (0.65–1.41) 2‐h PG ≥ 11.1: 4.61 (3.77–5.56)	—	—
Mohan 2008	8	17.5	—	—	—	64.8	—	—	—
Nakagami 2016	5	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—
Nakanishi 2004	7	1.5	—	3.3	—	—	—	—	—
Park 2006	4.1	5.7	—	—	31.3	—	—	—	—
Rajala 2000	4.6	—	—	—	—	41 (28–57)	—	—	—
Rasmussen 2008	3.5 (i‐IFG5.6: 2.5 , IGT: 2.1 )	—	—	—	i‐IFG5.6: 11.8 (9.9–13.8) per 100 person‐years	17.0 (14.9–19.1) per 100 person‐years (i‐IGT: 11.8 (9.7–13.9)	27 (22.5–31.7) per 100 person‐years	—	—
Rathmann 2009	7	—	—	i‐IFG6.1: 24.2 (12.5–42.3)	—	i‐IGT: 42.0 (29.0–58.7)	77.9 (48.8–117.9)	—	—
Rijkelijkhuizen 2007	6.4	7	—	66.5 (49.9–83.0)	32.7 (26.3–39.1)	i‐IGT: 57.9	112.2	—	—
Sadeghi 2015	7	Total: 14.1 (12.5–15.9) Men: 12.8 (10.7–15.3) Women: 15.5 (13.1–18.3)	—	—	Total: 48.4 (35.0–66.7) Men: 46.4 (28.9–74.7) Women: 50.1 (32.3–77.7)	Total: 40.3 (30.2–53.8) Men: 41.4 (25.7–66.6) Women: 39.6 (27.5–57.0)	Total: 137.6 (103.7–182.5) Men: 129.9 (83.0–203.7) Women: 143.1 (99.4–205.9)	—	—
Söderberg 2004	11	—	—	87–92: Men: 54.1 (48.0–60.1) Women: 35.1 (30.3–40.0) 92–98: Men: 60.5 (54.1–67.0) Women: 74–7 (67.8–81.8)	—	87–92: Men: 60.7 (54.3–67.1) Women: 47.9 (42.2–53.6) 92–98: Men: 119.6 (110.6–128.6) Women: 81.0 (73.6–88.4)	—	—	—
Soriguer 2008	6	7.2 (4.2–12.4)	—	—	38.1 (25.3–57.3)	31.1 (18.4–52.5)	66.0 (39.1–111.5)	—	—
Valdes 2008	6.3	3.8 (2.1–6.8) for i‐IGT and IFG/IGT: 5.0 (2.8–8)	—	58.0 (37–90.9)	19.5 (11.5–32.9)	37.9 (24.7–58.1) i‐IGT: 21 (10.9–40.4)	95.2 (54.1–167.7)	—	—
Vijayakumar 2017	Adults: 4.6 Children: 5.2	—	—	—	Boys: 22 Men: 70 Girls: 55 Women: 101	Boys: 38 Men: 94 Girls: 60 Women: 118	—	Boys: 52 Men: 100 Girls: 100 Women: 118	—
Wang 2011	7.8	21.1	—	—	Total: 66.2 Men: 57.7 Women: 73.4	Total: 95.8 Men: 98.1 Women: 94.8	Total: 109 Men: 109 Women: 109	—	—
CI: confidence interval; FPG: fasting plasma glucose; HbA1c: glycosylated haemoglobin A1c; HbA1c5.7/6.0: HbA1c threshold 5.7% or 6.0% (usually reflecting 5.7% to 6.4% and 6.0% to 6.4%, respectively); HbA1c/IFG: both HbA1c and IFG; i‐: isolated; IFG5.6/6.1: impaired fasting glucose (threshold 5.6 mmol/L or 6.1 mmol/L); IGT: impaired glucose tolerance; IFG/IGT: both IFG and IGT;NGT: normal glucose tolerance; T2DM: type 2 diabetes mellitus