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. 2019 Mar 9;78(5):648–656. doi: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2018-213455

Table 2.

Independent factors associated with FVC decline ≥10% and all-cause death as determined by multivariable Cox regression

Baseline characteristics HR (95% CI)
FVC decline ≥10%
Skin progression 1.79 (1.20 to 2.65)
Age 1.00 (0.99 to 1.01)
Male sex 0.89 (0.67 to 1.19)
mRSS 1.01 (0.99 to 1.03)
Disease duration 1.00 (0.99 to 1.00)
Lung fibrosis on CT scan 1.25 (0.90 to 1.72)
Pulmonary hypertension by echocardiography 1.31 (0.93 to 1.85)
Dyspnoea NYHA stage ≥2 1.23 (0.94 to 1.62)
Joint synovitis 1.10 (0.81 to 1.49)
FVC <70% predicted 0.89 (0.64 to 1.24)
DLCO <70% predicted 1.28 (0.97 to 1.69)
Anti-Scl-70 positive 0.99 (0.75 to 1.29)
ACA positive 1.07 (0.69 to 1.66)
CRP elevation 1.22 (0.92 to 1.60)
All-cause death
Skin progression 2.58 (1.31 to 5.09)
Age 1.05 (1.03 to 1.07)
Male sex 1.56 (0.95 to 2.57)
Lung fibrosis on CT scan 1.68 (0.84 to 3.36)
Pulmonary hypertension by echocardiography 0.84 (0.47 to 1.50)
Renal crisis history 3.15 (1.18 to 8.43)
Digital ulcers 1.58 (0.99 to 2.53)
Proteinuria 1.50 (0.74 to 3.04)
LVEF < 45% 3.51 (1.22 to 10.12)
FVC <70% predicted 2.60 (1.49 to 4.55)
DLCO <70% predicted 2.00 (1.04 to 3.84)

Factors highlighted in bold are significantly associated with the outcome.

Skin progression is defined as an increase in mRSS >5 and ≥25% from baseline to 12±3 months later.

ACA, anti-centromere antibody;Anti-Scl-70, anti-topoisomerase 1 antibody;CRP, C reactive protein;DLCO, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide;FVC, forced vital capacity; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction;NYHA, New York Heart Association; mRSS, modified Rodnan skin score.