Table 3.
Segmented autoregressive integrated moving average analysis of medical expenditure (Million CNY).
| Drug | Examination | Cure | Unclassified Items | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β a | SE b | p Value | β a | SE b | p Value | β a | SE b | p Value | β a | SE b | p Value | |
| Baseline trend c | 2.66 | 0.47 | 0.000 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.370 | 0.91 | 0.24 | 0.000 | 0.86 | 0.37 | 0.020 |
| Level change 1 d | −18.26 | 6.62 | 0.006 | −3.54 | 4.41 | 0.423 | 1.24 | 3.25 | 0.703 | 2.89 | 4.88 | 0.553 |
| Trend change 1 e | −1.26 | 0.43 | 0.003 | −0.22 | 0.39 | 0.577 | 0.06 | 0.29 | 0.824 | −0.93 | 0.67 | 0.168 |
| Level change 2 f | −28.31 | 6.67 | 0.000 | −6.26 | 5.68 | 0.271 | −16.28 | 2.07 | 0.000 | −5.68 | 5.51 | 0.302 |
| Trend change 2 g | −0.48 | 0.89 | 0.587 | −1.55 | 0.62 | 0.013 | −1.16 | 0.31 | 0.000 | −2.41 | 0.67 | 0.000 |
| Gender (Male, %) | −1033.10 | 590.34 | 0.080 | 318.55 | 303.95 | 0.002 | −15.62 | 223.36 | 0.944 | −57.80 | 234.29 | 0.805 |
| Age (>65, %) | −1165.90 | 299.06 | 0.000 | −694.85 | 226.18 | 0.295 | −568.79 | 96.63 | 0.000 | −773.9 | 95.30 | 0.000 |
| second quarter | −30.99 | 6.39 | 0.000 | −17.05 | 2.83 | 0.000 | −10.11 | 1.92 | 0.000 | −10.38 | 3.24 | 0.001 |
| third quarter | −52.78 | 6.61 | 0.000 | −18.14 | 4.81 | 0.000 | −16.79 | 2.35 | 0.000 | −18.18 | 3.80 | 0.000 |
| fourth quarter | −52.89 | 8.28 | 0.000 | −15.0 | 4.50 | 0.001 | −14.24 | 2.30 | 0.000 | −14.86 | 2.93 | 0.000 |
| Cons | 1524.78 | 394.11 | 0.000 | 357.62 | 286.07 | 0.182 | 476.83 | 147.70 | 0.001 | 647.35 | 170.19 | 0.000 |
| AR1 | 0.41 | 0.22 | 0.064 | −0.60 | 0.21 | 0.004 | −0.02 | 0.12 | 0.861 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.131 |
| AR2 | −0.62 | 0.15 | 0.000 | −0.45 | −0.19 | 0.020 | −0.64 | 0.16 | 0.000 | / | / | / |
| MA1 | −1.00 | 0.26 | 0.000 | / | / | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
| Ljung−Box Q | 23.31 | / | 0.384 | 31.15 | / | 0.071 | 29.69 | / | 0.126 | 24.23 | / | 0.335 |
a Coefficient of each variety; b Standard error of each variety; c Baseline time trend of dependent variable; d, e, f, g Instant change and time trend change of GBPS pilot and implemented.