Table 1.

Comparison of five candidate seasonal ARIMA models

Model	CAIC	Ljung-Box Q	P value
ARIMA (0,1,1) × (0,1,1)12	799.923	22.787	0.199
ARIMA (0,1,1) × (1,1,0)12	817.906	22.472	0.212
ARIMA (0,1,1) × (2,1,0)12	813.588	25.848	0.103
ARIMA (2,1,0) × (0,1,1)12	798.731	26.107	0.097
ARIMA (2,1,0) × (1,1,0)12	823.300	22.852	0.196