Table 1.

Observed epidemic sizes for the 24 Ebola outbreaks; p estimates and 95% credible intervals obtained when the GGM is fitted, per area, for varying ascending phase lengths

Country	Area	Observed epidemic size	p estimates (95% credible interval) at x weeks before peak
			0	1	2	3
Guinea	Conakry	548	0.873 (0.589–1.000)	0.638 (0.248–0.999)	0.595 (0.182–0.990)	0.389 (0.011–0.881)
Guinea	Forécariah	468	0.514 (0.333–0.682)	0.489 (0.284–0.670)	0.473 (0.263–0.664)	0.471 (0.248–0.694)
Guinea	Guéckédou	380	0.353 (0.184–0.511)	0.291 (0.150–0.432)	0.319 (0.159–0.467)	0.301 (0.155–0.460)
Guinea	Kérouané	140	0.421 (0.327–0.541)	0.404 (0.295–0.531)	0.531 (0.358–0.691)	0.622 (0.374–0.880)
Guinea	Kindia	110	0.485 (0.233–0.711)	0.344 (0.086–0.593)	0.467 (0.161–0.764)	0.445 (0.082–0.758)
Guinea	Macenta	702	0.772 (0.668–0.878)	0.798 (0.645–0.945)	0.933 (0.827–1.000)	0.803 (0.474–1.000)
Guinea	Nzérékoré	245	0.368 (0.287–0.454)	0.360 (0.279–0.449)	0.366 (0.275–0.462)	0.359 (0.267–0.472)
Sierra Leone	Bo	1498	0.773 (0.718–0.830)	0.794 (0.729–0.854)	0.797 (0.704–0.873)	0.771 (0.643–0.881)
Sierra Leone	Bombali	1070	0.886 (0.796–0.990)	0.930 (0.860–1.000)	0.972 (0.923–1.000)	0.949 (0.868–1.000)
Sierra Leone	Kailahun	741	0.521 (0.456–0.604)	0.528 (0.444–0.626)	0.548 (0.440–0.673)	0.571 (0.491–0.700)
Sierra Leone	Kambia	296	0.327 (0.179–0.479)	0.248 (0.111–0.379)	0.247 (0.106–0.390)	0.236 (0.105–0.391)
Sierra Leone	Kenema	537	0.457 (0.402–0.518)	0.459 (0.398–0.525)	0.469 (0.396–0.546)	0.484 (0.402–0.577)
Sierra Leone	Kono	564	0.527 (0.334–0.689)	0.450 (0.287–0.609)	0.461 (0.280–0.626)	0.418 (0.257–0.596)
Sierra Leone	Moyamba	297	0.545 (0.206–0.955)	0.160 (0.001–0.398)	0.230 (0.000–0.554)	0.121 (0.000–0.337)
Sierra Leone	Port Loko	2179	0.548 (0.500–0.598)	0.536 (0.480–0.588)	0.527 (0.466–0.581)	0.527 (0.465–0.592)
Sierra Leone	Tonkolili	617	0.920 (0.811–1.000)	0.739 (0.509–0.987)	0.791 (0.499–1.000)	0.367 (0.097–0.754)
Sierra Leone	Western rural	1711	0.561 (0.504–0.615)	0.565 (0.501–0.622)	0.581 (0.519–0.636)	0.601 (0.548–0.653)
Sierra Leone	Western urban	3152	0.595 (0.543–0.637)	0.574 (0.533–0.613)	0.582 (0.539–0.623)	0.577 (0.529–0.629)
Liberia	Bomi	195	0.315 (0.236–0.413)	0.297 (0.211–0.400)	0.317 (0.209–0.428)	0.376 (0.260–0.514)
Liberia	Bong	168	0.243 (0.140–0.372)	0.223 (0.103–0.350)	0.241 (0.120–0.378)	0.261 (0.128–0.409)
Liberia	Grand Cape Mount	139	0.406 (0.172–0.619)	0.205 (0.025–0.392)	0.227 (0.026–0.434)	0.241 (0.012–0.446)
Liberia	Lofa	465	0.451 (0.344–0.582)	0.408 (0.302–0.534)	0.378 (0.269–0.505)	0.361 (0.249–0.516)
Liberia	Margibi	830	0.805 (0.680–0.925)	0.836 (0.700–0.957)	0.868 (0.745–0.998)	0.893 (0.750–1.000)
Liberia	Montserrado	2683	0.821 (0.777–0.865)	0.835 (0.786–0.879)	0.844 (0.769–0.900)	0.831 (0.706–0.927)
Congo	Bumba	256	0.455 (0.313–0.597)	0.406 (0.252–0.564)	0.440 (0.261–0.588)	0.418 (0.253–0.600)
Uganda	Gulu	418	0.586 (0.500–0.670)	0.592 (0.482–0.693)	0.596 (0.458–0.722)	0.532 (0.390–0.695)