Table 3.
Estimated transmission rate parameters for the different scenarios: the default scenario assumes a latent period of 1 day, an infectious period of 4 days and all infected birds succumb to the infection
| Scenario | Transmission rate parameter β (95% CI) | Basic reproduction number R0 (95% CI) | Std. error for β point estimatea, b | Std. dev. between flocksa, b | 5th and 95th percentiles for individual flock βb | Generalised χ2/df |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Default | 3.2 (2.3–4.3) | 12.8 (9.2–17.2) | 0.142 | 0.756 | 1.3–10.3 | 156 |
| 43% surviving infection | 3.2 (2.4–4.4) | 12.8 (9.6–17.6) | 0.143 | 0.766 | 1.3–10.5 | 294 |
| 2-day latent period | 12.4 (6.9–22.3) | 49.6 (27.6–89.2) | 0.271 | 1.405 | 2.2–95.1 | 20 |
| Dropping outliersc | 3.1 (2.2–4.2) | 12.4 (8.8–16.8) | 0.149 | 0.790 | 1.1–10.3 | 9 |
| Using reported detection dayd | 2.1 (1.5–2.8) | 8.4 (6.0–11.2) | 0.146 | 0.761 | 0.5–6.6 | 165 |
a
Presented values are on a natural logarithm scale.
b
Presented estimates are obtained using procedure GLMER in R.
c
Estimated from a dataset that omitted daily records whose absolute Pearson residual was >10.
d
Setting Start Day 2 or less days prior to reported detection day and mortality staying above normal daily mortality instead of relying on mortality threshold.