Table 4.

Estimated parameters from synthetic data obtained from simulations using different values of β as inputs and taking mean latent and infectious periods of 1 and 4 days, respectively, while applying the flock selection criteria as used in the default scenario for the outbreak data

Input β (per day)	Per cent qualifying flocksa	Estimated transmission rate parameter β (5th and 95th percentiles for individual flock β)b	Basic reproduction number R0 (5th and 95th percentiles for individual flock)	Std. dev. between flocksc
3.0	47.2	2.9 (1.6–6.1)	11.6 (6.4–24.4)	0.457
3.0d	76.1	1.6 (1.1–2.3)	6.4 (4.4–9.2)	0.228
2.0	1.5	2.2 (1.0–4.8)	8.8 (4.0–19.2)	0.529
4.0	32.8	3.6 (1.8–8.3)	14.4 (7.2–33.2)	0.506

^aPercentage of the 1000 synthetic flocks that met the inclusion criteria that is based on HPAI-related mortality in a flock.

^bEstimates are obtained using GLMER procedure in R and percentiles are preferred since standard error is more influenced by sample size.

^cPresented values are on a natural logarithm scale obtained in R and standard deviation is preferred since standard error is more influenced by sample size.

^dEstimated from synthetic data without adjusting for normal mortality during the period of interest.