Table 4.

Sensitivity and specificity of the final model for predicting outbreak presence or absence using different thresholds (using scenario 4)

Threshold	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV
Mean	0.18	0.98	0.83	0.74
Mean + 1.5 s.d.	0.18	0.97	0.67	0.80
Mean + 2 s.d.	0.14	0.96	0.4	0.87

s.d., standard deviation; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value.