Table 4.
Discrimination between individuals with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) or prediabetes in individuals who were NGM or non-T2DM at baseline
| BCF index | Incident T2DM in at-baseline Non-T2DM Follow-up n = 306 non-T2DM n = 63 T2DM |
Rank | Incident T2DM in at-baseline NGM Follow-up n = 17 T2DM n = 170 NGM |
Rank | Incident prediabetes in at-baseline NGM Follow-up n = 73 prediabetes n = 170 NGM |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fasting measures | ||||||
| HOMA-B1 | 52 (44, 61) | 20 | 64 (48, 81) | 9 | 54 (46, 62) | 15 |
| HOMA-B2 | 52 (43, 60) | 21 | 65 (48, 82) | 8 | 53 (45, 62) | 16 |
| I0/G0 ratio | 59 (51, 67) | 16 | 69 (54, 85) | 7 | 51 (43, 60) | 20 |
| CP0/G0 ratio | 60 (52, 68) | 14 | 70 (55, 84) | 6 | 52 (44, 60) | 19 |
| Early-phase BCF indices | ||||||
| I30/I0 ratio | 77 (70, 83) | 4 | 72 (60, 84) | 5 | 55 (47, 63) | 9–11 |
| CP30/CP0 ratio | 78 (72, 84) | 2 | 76 (65, 87) | 3 | 50 (43, 58) | 21 |
| ΔI30/ΔG30 ratio | 74 (68, 81) | 5 | 73 (61, 85) | 4 | 59 (51, 67) | 5 |
| ΔI30/G30 ratio | 69 (62, 77) | 6 | 63 (49, 77) | 10 | 55 (47, 63) | 9–11 |
| ΔCP30/ΔG30 ratio | 81 (75, 86) | 1 | 84 (75, 93) | 1 | 62 (54, 70) | 2–3 |
| CIR30 | 77 (71, 83) | 3 | 77 (67, 87) | 2 | 61 (53, 68) | 4 |
| Stumvoll early-phase × 10−2 | 62 (54, 71) | 10 | 52 (36, 69) | 18 | 55 (47, 63) | 9–11 |
| BIGTT0.30.120 × 10−2 | 63 (55, 71) | 9 | 58 (42, 73) | 12 | 54 (46, 63) | 13–14 |
| BIGTT0.60.120 × 10−2 | 61 (52, 69) | 12 | 51 (33, 69) | 20 | 57 (49, 65) | 6 |
| Late-phase BCF indices | ||||||
| Stumvoll second phase | 60 (52, 69) | 13 | 50 (33, 67) | 21 | 54 (46, 63) | 13–14 |
| I120/I0 ratio | 60 (52, 67) | 15 | 51 (35, 66) | 19 | 63 (55, 71) | 1 |
| CP120/CP0 ratio | 54 (46, 62) | 18 | 56 (41, 71) | 13 | 62 (54, 70) | 2–3 |
| ΔI120/ΔG120 ratio | 54 (47, 61) | 17 | 54 (39, 69) | 15 | 55 (48, 63) | 8 |
| ΔCP120/ΔG120 ratio | 52 (48, 58) | 19 | 52 (39, 65) | 17 | 55 (47, 62) | 12 |
| CIR120 | 65 (57, 73) | 8 | 56 (40, 72) | 14 | 52 (45, 60) | 17 |
| Overall insulin secretion indices | ||||||
| IAUC/ GAUC ratio | 61 (53, 70) | 11 | 53 (37, 69) | 16 | 52 (44, 61) | 18 |
| CPAUC/ GAUC ratio | 68 (60, 76) | 7 | 63 (48, 78) | 11 | 56 (47, 64) | 7 |
ROC AUCs are expressed in % (95% CI)
‘Rank’ reflects the order of ROC AUC estimates from high to low. Differences between ranked ROC AUCs were not statistically significant
BIGTT-AIR, beta cell function, insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance testing