Table 1.
Estimated risk group sizes and chronic infections, 2005 and 2015
| Age group | Group size | Chronic infection | % infected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | |||
| PWID | |||
| 0‐29 | 64 900 (56 100‐74 100) | 18 200 (15 500‐20 800) | 28% (27‐29%) |
| 30‐39 | 56 800 (42 600‐73 800) | 24 000 (17 300‐32 300) | 42% (40‐44%) |
| 40‐49 | 30 600 (19 000‐47000) | 16 700 (10 000‐26 400) | 55% (52‐56%) |
| 50‐59 | 9500 (4850‐17 000) | 5900 (2900‐10 800) | 62% (59‐64%) |
| 60+ | 2000 (880‐4350) | 1350 (590‐2950) | 67% (64‐70%) |
| Total | 164 200 (123 600‐213 300) | 66 200 (46 400‐92 400) | 40% (37‐44%) |
| Permanently ceased injecting | |||
| 0‐29 | 68 600 (56 500‐84 800) | 8500 (6100‐11 300) | 12% (11‐14%) |
| 30‐39 | 134 400 (108 300‐164 300) | 27300 (20 400‐34 500) | 20% (19‐21%) |
| 40‐49 | 141 700 (112500‐176 300) | 35 200 (26 700‐43 100) | 25% (23‐26%) |
| 50‐59 | 80 200 (64 100‐101 800) | 19 300 (15 100‐24 100) | 24% (21‐26%) |
| 60+ | 46 900 (37 500‐56 800) | 8700 (7000‐11200) | 19% (15‐22%) |
| Total | 474 700 (380 200‐568 700) | 99 400 (75 800‐119 400) | 21% (20‐22%) |
| Never injected drugsa | |||
| South Asian ethnicity | 2 641 000 | 8500 | 0.32% |
| White/other ethnicity | 4 7500 000 | 10 500 | 0.022% |
| All risk groups | |||
| Total | 53 910 000 | 179 000 (161 000‐198 000) | 0.35% (0.32‐0.39%) |
| 2015 | |||
| Current PWID | |||
| 0‐29 | 39 000 (30 300‐51 500) | 10 800 (8600‐14 600) | 28% (26‐30%) |
| 30‐39 | 36 100 (25 300‐47 900) | 13 700 (9300‐18 600) | 38% (36‐39%) |
| 40‐49 | 29 000 (17 100‐45 300) | 13 600 (7700‐22100) | 47% (45‐50%) |
| 50‐59 | 13 600 (6500‐25 300) | 7500 (3500‐14600) | 56% (54‐59%) |
| 60+ | 3750 (1450‐8500) | 2350 (870‐5400) | 61% (59‐64%) |
| Total | 121 100 (83 300‐167 800) | 48 100 (30 500‐71 200) | 40% (36‐44%) |
| Permanently ceased injecting | |||
| 0‐29 | 37 100 (28 800‐47 900) | 4500 (3100‐6300) | 12% (11‐14%) |
| 30‐39 | 92 600 (75 200‐114 100) | 13 000 (9900‐16 600) | 14% (13‐15%) |
| 40‐49 | 151 000 (122 800‐180 500) | 25 100 (20 000‐30 900) | 17% (16‐18%) |
| 50‐59 | 135 600 (109 500‐168 900) | 24700 (19 600‐31 200) | 18% (17‐20%) |
| 60+ | 92 700 (76 200‐117 400) | 13 100 (9700‐17 400) | 14% (12‐17%) |
| Total | 513 200 (415 200‐598 700) | 80 900 (64 400‐95 700) | 16% (15‐17%) |
| Never injected drugsa | |||
| South Asian ethnicity | 3 331 000 | 8300 | 0.25% |
| White/other ethnicity | 49 950 000 | 8200 | 0.016% |
| All risk groups | |||
| Total | 50 770 000 | 143 000 (123 000‐161 000) | 0.27% (0.23‐0.30%) |
Posterior medians and 95% credible intervals for the number of PWID and ex‐PWIDb, and number (%) with chronic infection, by age group. Total numbers of those who have never injected drugs are also givena.
a
Statistical uncertainty is not fully incorporated in estimated infections in those who have never injected drug; credible intervals are therefore not displayed.
b
PWID are defined as those currently injecting or who have temporarily ceased to inject; ex‐PWID have injected in the past, but now permanently ceased.