Table 2.
Estimated chronic prevalence with 95% credible intervals for 2005 and 2015 under alternative model formulations and sensitivity analyses
| Model | 2005 prevalence | 2015 prevalence |
|---|---|---|
| Base model | 179 000 (161 000‐198 000) | 143 000 (123 000‐161 000) |
| All HES data (2004‐2016) | 192 400 (174 200‐214 100) | 164 800 (144 300‐188 100) |
| HES data 2004‐2010 | 146 200 (134 100‐159 600) | 120 700 (107 000‐136 000) |
| All HES data, no NTA data | 227 000 (193 600‐248 500) | 218 200 (175 500‐252 800) |
| ESLD only (all years), no NTA data | 265 900 (239 600‐289 000) | 263 300 (231 800‐290 300) |
| HCC only (all years), no NTA data | 189 400 (171 900‐206 400) | 150 900 (129 400‐169 600) |
| True HES data 42% higher | 218 300 (195 200‐239 600) | 169 000 (147 300‐193 000) |
| HES data 42% higher, HCC only | 190 300 (171 800‐216 400) | 150 300 (130 500‐173 700) |
| HES 42% higher, stronger PWID prior | 195 700 (178 200‐214 400) | 139 800 (121 700‐157 300) |
| Fixed 100 000 PWID, mean injecting 20 y | 158 100 (152 200‐163 700) | 105 500 (99 700‐110 100) |
| Fixed 100 000 PWID, mean injecting 10 y | 237 000 (210 400‐254 700) | 187 700 (165 800‐202900) |
| Fixed 200 000 PWID, mean injecting 20 y | 199 400 (188700‐209400) | 174 800 (166 300‐184 000) |
| Fixed 200 000 PWID, mean injecting 10 y | 248 200 (226 400‐268 300) | 241 900 (223 600‐263 100) |