Table 3.
ESIP MiQuit trial outputs for women and offspring: base case and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, end‐of‐pregnancy horizon.
| Outcome | Base case (deterministic: no allowance for uncertainty) | Estimates from the probabilistic sensitivity analysis (incorporates uncertainty for model inputs) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comparator | Experimental | Incremental | ||||||||||
| Comparator | Experimental | Incremental | Median | Interquartile range | Median | Interquartile range | Median | Interquartile range | ||||
| Maternal outcomes | ||||||||||||
| Number of pregnancies with a morbidity | 122 | 121 | −1 | 122 | 118 | 126 | 121 | 118 | 125 | −1 | −1 | 0 |
| Expected QALYs per mother | 0.6842 | 0.6852 | 0.0010 | 0.6841 | 0.6779 | 0.6902 | 0.6852 | 0.6790 | 0.6912 | 0.0010 | 0.0006 | 0.0014 |
| Expected costs per mother (£) | 3108.55 | 3113.45 | 4.91 | 3046.26 | 2618.44 | 3514.32 | 3050.83 | 2622.09 | 3519.06 | 4.55 | 3.72 | 5.72 |
| ICER per morbidity avoided (£) | 6093.90 | 6385.64 | 4776.11 | 9152.32 | ||||||||
| ICER per additional QALY (£) | 4930.28 | 5251.48 | 3899.71 | 7414.55 | ||||||||
| ICER per additional quitter (£) | 141.79 | 149.78 | 112.89 | 206.82 | ||||||||
| Offspring outcomes | ||||||||||||
| Number of fetal losses (including stillbirths) | 106 | 105 | −1 | 106 | 103 | 110 | 105 | 102 | 109 | −1 | −1 | −1 |
| Number of premature births | 73 | 73 | 0 | 73 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 71 | 74 | 0 | −1 | 0 |
| Number of LBW infants | 113 | 111 | −2 | 113 | 111 | 115 | 111 | 109 | 113 | −2 | −3 | −1 |
| Total number of infants with adverse birth outcomes | 213 | 211 | −2 | 213 | 210 | 217 | 211 | 208 | 215 | −2 | −3 | −1 |
| Expected cost per infant (£) | 3261.81 | 3263.58 | 1.77 | 2738.18 | 1821.11 | 4154.83 | 2740.49 | 1820.83 | 4156.79 | 1.94 | −0.57 | 3.66 |
| ICER per adverse birth outcome avoided (£) | 892.80 | 1144.95 | −258.57 | 2973.27 | ||||||||
| Combined per pregnancy outcomes (mother and offspring) | ||||||||||||
| Expected cost per pregnancy (mother and infant) | 6370.35 | 6374.00 | 3.64 | 5880.56 | 4832.65 | 7419.67 | 5881.73 | 4834.59 | 7424.81 | 3.16 | 1.24 | 5.61 |
| ICER per additional QALY (£) | 3658.58 | 4217.09 | 1235.06 | 8220.71 | ||||||||
| ICER per additional quitter (£) | 105.22 | 121.41 | 34.63 | 233.44 | ||||||||
| Cost‐offset analysis | ||||||||||||
| Cost savings ratio for maternal health‐care only (£) | −0.61 | −0.50 | −0.88 | −0.22 | ||||||||
| Cost savings ratio for offspring health‐care only (£) | 0.42 | 0.36 | −0.19 | 1.19 | ||||||||
| Cost savings ratio for combined health‐care only (£) | −1.20 | −1.01 | −1.83 | −0.42 | ||||||||
ESIP = Economics of Smoking in Pregnancy; QALY = quality‐adjusted life year; ICER = incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio.