Table 4.
Concentration of Risk of Depression Cases in Different Proportions of Incoming Freshmen at Highest Predicted Risk based on a Multivariate Modela Including all Risk Factors
| Depression Onset | ||
|---|---|---|
| % at Highest Predicted Risk | Sensitivity (%[SE])b | PPV (%[SE])c |
| 100 | 100.0 (0.0) | 6.9 (0.8) |
| 90 | 96.0 (2.4) | 7.3 (0.9) |
| 80 | 91.8 (3.4) | 7.9 (1.0) |
| 70 | 87.4 (4.1) | 8.6 (1.2) |
| 60 | 82.7 (4.8) | 9.5 (1.3) |
| 50 | 77.2 (5.2) | 10.6 (1.5) |
| 40 | 71.0 (5.9) | 12.2 (1.8) |
| 30 | 63.1 (6.3) | 14.4 (2.3) |
| 20 | 52.4 (6.5) | 17.9 (3.0) |
| 10 | 36.1 (6.1) | 24.7 (4.9) |
a
See the model in the supplementary materials covering multivariate model construction (Supplementary Tables 1, 2). Model‐based AUC values were 0.78 [SE = 0.03] for depression onset. Cross‐validated AUC values were 0.73 [SE = 0.04].
b
Sensitivity = proportion of depression cases found among the row % of respondents at highest predicted risk, based on cross‐validated predicted probabilities.
c
Positive predictive value (PPV) = probability of effectively developing a depression when being among the row % at highest predicted risk, based on cross‐validated predicted probabilities.