Table 2.

Quantitative performances (goodness of fit) of the three compartmental models in predicting annual seasonal hyperendemic incidence of 64 health centre years in four health districts of Burkina Faso during 2004–2010

Models	R2a		PB (%)b		RSRc
	Median	1st, 3rd quartiled	Median	1st, 3rd quartile	Median	1st, 3rd quartile
Model1-‘inv’	0.72	0.62, 0.83	−2.30	−11.10, 4.20	0.52	0.41, 0.61
Model2-‘transm’	0.86	0.78, 0.92	0.50	−7.10, 1580	0.37	0.28, 0.47
Model3-‘inv-transm’	0.87	0.78, 0.92	4.96	−10.20, 11.20	0.36	0.28, 0.46

^aR²: coefficient of determination. Refers to the variance in observed data explained by the model.

^bPB: per cent bias (%). Average tendency of the simulated values to be larger or smaller than their observed ones.

^cRSR: ratio of root-mean-square error (RMSE) to standard deviations of observations.

^d1st, 3rd quartiles refers to: first and third quartiles of the estimates distribution.