Table 5.

Partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) between the Latin Hypercube Samples of estimated parameters and the annual cumulative incidence of meningitis (sensitivity analysis)

		Model1-‘inv’		Model2-‘transm’		Model3-‘inv-transm’
Parameter	Short description	PRCCa	95% Confidence interval	PRCC	95% Confidence interval	PRCC	95% Confidence interval
β0	Meningococcal mean transmission rate	0.76***	0.68–0.84	0.80***	0.75–0.86	0.91***	0.88–0.96
a0	Meningococcal mean invasion rate	0.90***	0.86–0.96	0.84***	0.76–0.94	0.81***	0.75–0.89
α	Rate of loss of carriage	−0.89***	−0.93 to −0.86	−0.49***	−0.65 to −0.31	−0.63***	−0.75 to −0.54
φ	Rate of loss of natural immunity	0.80***	0.73–0.88	0.87***	0.82–0.93	0.90***	0.87–0.95
θ	Calendar day of maximal invasion rate	0.18	−0.01 to 0.36	0.03	−0.17 to 0.27	−0.04	−0.26 to 0.19
εa	Seasonal forcing amplitude of invasion rate	−0.15	−0.34 to 0.05	NA	NA	−0.025	−0.25 to 0.22
εb	Seasonal forcing amplitude of meningococcal transmission rate	NAb	NA	0.18	0.03–0.37	−0.11	−0.31 to 0.11
S0	Initial susceptibles’ proportion	0.86***	0.81–0.93	0.73***	0.66–0.84	0.81***	0.74 to 0.90
C0	Initial carriers’ proportion	0.09	−0.08 to 0.33	0.11	−0.095 to 0.28	0.22*	0.04 to 0.40

^aPartial rank correlation coefficients estimates are significantly different than 0 at 0.05 level (*), and <10⁻¹⁰ level (***) two-sided P values. They quantify the statistical relationship between each parameter and the model output.

^bNA stands for not applicable to the model.