Table 2.
Comparison of spatio-temporal regression Bayesian models for overall child maltreatment, child sexual abuse, child physical abuse, and child neglect. Posterior mean, standard deviation (SD) and 95% credible interval (CrI) of all parameters
Overall child maltreatment | Child sexual abuse | Physical abuse | Neglect | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | SD | 95% CrI | Mean | SD | 95% CrI | Mean | SD | 95% CrI | Mean | SD | 95% CrI | |
Intercept | −.658 | .229 | −1.108, −.191 | −.738 | .238 | −1.212, −.264 | −.934 | .254 | −1.410, −.425 | −1.141 | .278 | −1.645, −.556 |
% families in poverty | .016* | .010 | −.003, .035 | .018* | .011 | −.016, .040 | .034** | .013 | .009, .058 | .031** | .014 | .003, .058 |
Unemployment rate | .001 | .006 | −.012, .013 | .002 | .009 | −.016, .020 | .007 | .011 | −.014, .031 | .023* | .013 | −.002, .051 |
% vacant housing | .016* | .013 | −.008, .043 | .025* | .016 | −.005, .057 | .006 | .020 | −.014, .045 | .033* | .022 | −.010, .076 |
Total crime rate | .002** | .001 | .000, .005 | .002* | .001 | .000, .005 | .003* | .002 | −.001, .006 | .001 | .002 | −.002, .004 |
σθ | .185 | .032 | .127, .253 | .162 | .038 | .092, .240 | .184 | .059 | .004, .309 | .331 | .052 | .294, .441 |
σϕ | .309 | .079 | .162, .466 | .205 | .085 | .039, .375 | .189 | .111 | .016, .438 | .524 | .124 | .272, .763 |
σα | .037 | .030 | .001, .111 | .053 | .045 | .003, .164 | .066 | .055 | .002, .204 | .224 | .108 | .043, .473 |
ρ | .947 | .021 | .899, .979 | .945 | .032 | .871, .987 | .940 | .042 | .837, .992 | .838 | .054 | .723, .930 |
Posterior probability of being under or over zero > .80
Posterior probability of being under or over zero > .95
Abbreviations: SD, standard deviation; CrI, credible interval; σθ, standard deviation unstructured term; σϕ, standard deviation spatially structured term; σα standard mean deviation of the risk; ρ, temporal correlation.