. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 May 1.

Published in final edited form as: Child Maltreat. 2018 Nov 22;24(2):181–192. doi: 10.1177/1077559518814364

Table 2.

Comparison of spatio-temporal regression Bayesian models for overall child maltreatment, child sexual abuse, child physical abuse, and child neglect. Posterior mean, standard deviation (SD) and 95% credible interval (CrI) of all parameters

	Overall child maltreatment			Child sexual abuse			Physical abuse			Neglect

	Mean	SD	95% CrI	Mean	SD	95% CrI	Mean	SD	95% CrI	Mean	SD	95% CrI
Intercept	−.658	.229	−1.108, −.191	−.738	.238	−1.212, −.264	−.934	.254	−1.410, −.425	−1.141	.278	−1.645, −.556
% families in poverty	.016^*	.010	−.003, .035	.018^*	.011	−.016, .040	.034^**	.013	.009, .058	.031^**	.014	.003, .058
Unemployment rate	.001	.006	−.012, .013	.002	.009	−.016, .020	.007	.011	−.014, .031	.023^*	.013	−.002, .051
% vacant housing	.016^*	.013	−.008, .043	.025^*	.016	−.005, .057	.006	.020	−.014, .045	.033^*	.022	−.010, .076
Total crime rate	.002^**	.001	.000, .005	.002^*	.001	.000, .005	.003^*	.002	−.001, .006	.001	.002	−.002, .004
σ_θ	.185	.032	.127, .253	.162	.038	.092, .240	.184	.059	.004, .309	.331	.052	.294, .441
σ_ϕ	.309	.079	.162, .466	.205	.085	.039, .375	.189	.111	.016, .438	.524	.124	.272, .763
σ_α	.037	.030	.001, .111	.053	.045	.003, .164	.066	.055	.002, .204	.224	.108	.043, .473
ρ	.947	.021	.899, .979	.945	.032	.871, .987	.940	.042	.837, .992	.838	.054	.723, .930

Posterior probability of being under or over zero > .80

^**

Posterior probability of being under or over zero > .95

Abbreviations: SD, standard deviation; CrI, credible interval; σ_θ, standard deviation unstructured term; σ_ϕ, standard deviation spatially structured term; σ_α standard mean deviation of the risk; ρ, temporal correlation.