Table 5.
Parameters and variables examined in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Parameters with varied values
| Parameter | Distribution | Mean | Range | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcomes | ||||||
| BMI reduction | Normal | 0.71 | 0.08 | – | 1.35 | (95% CI of mean) |
| Weight loss | Normal | 1.85 | 0.16 | – | 3.55 | (95% CI of mean) |
| CRP reduction, mg/L | Normal | 1.15 | 0.15 | – | 2.16 | (95% CI of mean) |
| Simple 7 increase | Normal | 0.67 | 0.14 | – | 1.21 | (95% CI of mean) |
| Annual ASCVD risk reduction | Log normal | 0.00096 | 0.00043 | – | 0.00149 | (95% CI of mean) |
| Costs, per person | ||||||
| Resources of SHHC | Υ, gamma | 775 | 581 | – | 968 | (±25% of mean) |
| Resources of SHHC-CON | Υ, gamma | 667 | 500 | – | 833 | (±25% of mean) |
| Participant of SHHC | Υ, gamma | 1087 | 815 | – | 1359 | (±25% of mean) |
| Participant of SHHC-CON | Υ, gamma | 887 | 665 | – | 1108 | (±25% of mean) |
| Medical cost, 2013 $ | ||||||
| CHD (nonfatal mi) | Υ, gamma | 62,200 | 52,870 | – | 71,530 | (±15% of mean) |
| Stroke (nonfatal) | Υ, gamma | 20,509 | 17,433 | – | 23,585 | (±15% of mean) |
| Follow-up visit, 2013 $ | Υ, gamma | 75 | 53 | – | 98 | (±30% of mean) |
| QALYs | ||||||
| Women age 55–64, BMI 30–40 | β, beta | 0.798 | 0.678 | – | 0.918 | (±15% of mean) |
| CHD | β, beta | 0.697 | 0.592 | – | 0.802 | (±15% of mean) |
| Stroke | β, beta | 0.590 | 0.502 | – | 0.679 | (±15% of mean) |
The incidence rates are not the assumed CHD or stroke rates for the hypothetical population in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The ratio of the two incidence rates is used in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis to partition the reduction of an ASCVD event into a CHD event reduction and a stroke event reduction