Table 2.

Race- and Sex-Specific Equation Parameters for Estimation of 10-year Risk of HF erived from the Pooled Cohort

	White Male	White Female	Black Male	Black Female
Ln Age (y)	41.94	20.55	2.88	51.75
Ln Age, Squared	−0.88	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ln Treated Systolic BP (mm Hg)	1.03	12.95	2.31	29.0
Ln Age×Ln Treated Systolic BP	N/A	−2.96	N/A	−6.59
Ln Untreated Systolic BP (mm Hg)	0.91	11.86	2.17	28.18
Ln Age×Ln Untreated Systolic BP	N/A	−2.73	N/A	−6.42
Current Smoker (1=Yes, 0=No)	0.74	11.02	1.66	0.76
Ln Age×Current Smoker	N/A	−2.50	−0.25	N/A
Ln Treated glucose (mg/dL)	0.90	1.04	0.64	0.97
Ln Untreated glucose (mg/dL)	0.78	0.91	0.58	0.80
Ln Total Cholesterol (mg/dL)	0.49	N/A	N/A	0.32
Ln HDL–C (mg/dL)	−0.44	−0.07	−0.81	N/A
Ln BMI (Kg/m2)	37.2	1.33	1.16	21.24
Ln Age× Ln BMI	−8.83	N/A	N/A	−5.0
Ln QRS duration (msec)	0.63	1.06	0.73	1.27
Mean Coefficient× Value (MeanCV)	171.5	99.73	28.73	233.9
Baseline Survival (S0)	0.98752	0.99348	0.98295	0.99260

Calculation of the 10-year risk estimate for HF can best be described as a series of steps: 1) the natural log of age, systolic blood pressure (treated or untreated), glucose (treated or untreated), total cholesterol, HDL-C, body mass index, and QRS duration; 2) calculation of the interaction terms using the natural log of each variable; 3) multiplication of these values by the coefficients from the equation shown above for the appropriate race and sex group; 4) The sum of the coefficientxvalue is calculated for the individual (IndX); The estimated 10-year risk of a HF event is then formally calculated as:

$$1-S_0{}^{e^{(IndX-MeanCV)}}$$

N/A indicates not applicable; HF indicates heart failure; BP indicates blood pressure; HDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; BMI, body mass index; and Ln, natural logarithm.