Table 2.
Best CD4 count and HIV RNA level predictors and final model for overall NHL risk, NA-ACCORD, 1996–2014.
| Best predictors | Separate
modelsa |
Combined modelsb |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL cases | Model 1 |
Model 2 (Final model) |
Model 3 |
Model 4 |
|||
| NHL cases | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | ||
| Recent CD4 count (i.e., CD4 count 180 d lag), cells per μL | |||||||
| <50 | 114 | 11·1 (8·6–14·4) | 60 | 3·2 (2·2–4·7) | 4·1 (2·8–6·0) | 2·9 (2·0–4·3) | |
| 50–<100 | 66 | 5·8 (4·3–7·9) | 41 | 2·5 (1·7–3·8) | 3·2 (2·1–4·7) | 2·3 (1·6–3·5) | |
| 100–<200 | 117 | 3·5 (2·7–4·5) | 59 | 1·5 (1·1–2·2) | 1·9 (1·3–2·7) | 1·5 (1·0–2·1) | |
| 200–<350 | 150 | 2·1 (1·7–2·7) | 78 | 1·2 (0·9–1·6) | 1·4 (1·0–1·9) | 1·2 (0·8–1·6) | |
| 350–<500 | 128 | 1·7 (1·3–2·1) | 70 | 1·1 (0·8–1·6) | 1·2 (0·9–1·7) | 1·1 (0·8–1·5) | |
| ≥500 | 137 | 1·0 (ref) | 95 | 1·0 (ref) | 1·0 (ref) | 1·0 (ref) | |
| Global p-valuec | <0·0001 | <0·0001 | <0·0001 | <0·0001 | |||
| Per 50 cells per μL | 0·86 (0·85–0·88) | 0·95 (0·93–0·97) | 0·93 (0·91–0·96) | 0·95 (0·93–0·98) | |||
| P-trend | <0·0001 | <0·0001 | <0·0001 | 0·0001 | |||
| AICc | 6625 | ||||||
| Late HIV RNA level average, copies per mLd | |||||||
| ≤500 | 81 | 1·0 (ref) | 81 | 1·0 (ref) | 1·0 (ref) | 1·0 (ref) | |
| >500–<10,000 | 81 | 2·2 (1·6–3·0) | 81 | 1·9 (1·3–2·8) | 2·1 (1·5–2·8) | 1·9 (1·3–2·7) | |
| 10,000–<100,000 | 153 | 5·4 (4·1–7·2) | 153 | 3·9 (2·7–5·6) | 4·2 (3·1–5·7) | 3·4 (2·3–5·0) | |
| ≥100,000 | 88 | 16·6 (12·0–22·9) | 88 | 8·8 (5·5–14·2) | 9·6 (6·5–14·0) | 6·2 (3·7–10·2) | |
| Global p-valuec | <0·0001 | 0·0001 | <0·0001 | <0·0001 | |||
| Per log10 copies per mL | 2·36 (2·14–2·60) | 1·96 (1·69–2·27) | 2·09 (1·87–2·34) | 1·80 (1·54–2·10) | |||
| P-trend | <0·0001 | <0·0001 | <0·0001 | <0·0001 | |||
| AICc | 6522 | ||||||
| HIV RNA level 540 d lag, copies per mL | |||||||
| ≤500 | 199 | 1·0 (ref) | 142 | 1·0 (ref) | 1·0 (ref) | 1·0 (ref) | |
| >500–<10,000 | 109 | 2·0 (1·6–2·5) | 73 | 1·3 (0·9–1·8) | 1·8 (1·4–2·5) | 1·2 (0·8–1·7) | |
| 10,000–<100,000 | 167 | 4·0 (3·2–4·9) | 106 | 1·6 (1·1–2·2) | 2·9 (2·2–3·9) | 1·4 (1·0–2·0) | |
| ≥100,000 | 122 | 9·1 (7·2–11·6) | 82 | 2·3 (1·5–3·5) | 5·7 (4·1–8·0) | 1·9 (1·2–2·9) | |
| Global p-valuec | <0·0001 | 0·0017 | <0·0001 | 0·044 | |||
| Per log10 copies per mL | 1·91 (1·78–2·04) | 1·24 (1·10–1·49) | 1·75 (1·59–1·92) | 1·20 (1·06–1·36) | |||
| P-trend | <0·0001 | 0·0007 | <0·0001 | 0·0040 | |||
| AICc | 6582 | ||||||
| Combined models’ AICc | 6513 | 6488 | 6530 | 6486 | |||
AIC=Akaike’s information criterion. HR=hazard ratio. 95% CI=95% confidence interval. NHL=non-Hodgkin lymphoma.
Each measure was individually included in a cohort-stratified Cox model adjusted for sex, race/ethnicity, and baseline age and calendar period. The N and number of NHL cases used for the model of each measure was: CD4 180 d lag (N= 102,131; number of NHL cases= 712), HIV RNA 540 d lag (N= 93,917; number of NHL cases= 597), and late HIV RNA average (N= 68,585; number of NHL cases= 403).
From cohort-stratified Cox model with combinations of key predictors as covariates and adjusted for sex, race/ethnicity, and baseline age and calendar period among persons with follow-up >1260 days (N= 68,585; number of NHL cases= 403).
Global p-value and AIC from models among persons with follow-up >1260 days (N= 68,585; number of NHL cases= 403).
HIV RNA average during the late moving window (i.e., from 1260 to 180 days in the past).