Figure plots the (percentage) difference between average MA spending
and (re-weighted) TM spending per enrollee- month against average TM spending
for each of the 36 states in our baseline sample. The y-axis in the top panel
compares MA spending to TM spending that is re-weighted to match the MA
population on county and risk score, using our preferred weighting (see Table 2, Panel A, column (4)). The bottom
panel does the same but using predicted mortality to adjust for selection on
unobservables (see Table 2, Panel B,
column (4)), as described in Section III. The size of each bubble is
proportional to the number of total Medicare enrollees in the state. The x-axis
reports average (unadjusted) TM spending in the state (see Table 2, Panel A, column (1)).