Table 2.
Base case model parameters
| Parameters | Mean | Alpha/Beta | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model transitions | ||||
| From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Removed from waiting list’ (Standard and EVLP service) | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.020 | 5.02, 245.98 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 2 | 0.030 | 2.51, 80.32 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.077 | 2.51, 30.12 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| From ‘Waiting list’ to Transition to ‘Death’ (Standard and EVLP service) | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.150 | 37.65, 213.35 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 2 | 0.212 | 17.57, 65.26 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.077 | 2.51, 30.12 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Receiving a standard lung transplant’ | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.510 | 128, 122.99 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 2 | 0.364 | 30.1, 52.71 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.462 | 15.1, 17.57 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
|
Increase in lung transplant activity due to EVLP procedure (Applied in addition to standard LTx transition in EVLP service arm) |
10% | 18, 184 | Beta | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Post lung transplant survival | ||||
| One-year survival for standard and EVLP | 0.77 | 257.91, 77.04 | Beta | UK cardio audit [27] |
| Area under the curve | ||||
| 1-year survival | 0.77 | 257.91, 77.04 | Beta | UK cardio audit [27] |
| 3-year survival | 0.7 | 225.19, 96.51, | Beta | UK cardio audit [27] |
| 5-year survival | 0.53 | 167.15, 148.23 | Beta | UK cardio audit [27] |
| 10-year survival | 0.34 | 116.90, 226.93 | Beta | UK cardio audit [27] |
| Utilities | ||||
| Waiting list | 0.563 | 2292.2, 1782.4 | Beta | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| 1-year post standard lung transplant | 0.702 | 465.8, 197.3 | Beta | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| 2 years onwards post standard lung transplant | 0.734 | 439.7, 159.4 | Beta | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| 1-year post EVLP lung transplant | 0.702 | 465.8, 197.3 | Beta | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| 2 years onwards post EVLP transplant | 0.734 | 439.7, 159.4 | Beta | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Costs | ||||
| Waiting list cost per year | £23,829 | 103.1, 239.3 | Gamma | Anyanwu [14] |
| Standard lung transplant | £51,778 | 304.2, 175.5 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| EVLP lung transplant | £137,527 | 98.4, 1441.1 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Post lung transplant costs – standard LTx (outpatient and concomitant medication Table 38 HTA report[4]) | ||||
| Year 1 | £9700 | 93.5, 107.1 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Year 2 | £3812 | 93.4, 42.1 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Year 3 onwards | £3506 | 93.4, 38.7 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Post lung transplant costs – EVLP LTx | ||||
| Year 1 | £5919 | 20.2, 302.7 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Year 2 | £2326 | 20.2, 118.9 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Year 3 onwards | £2140 | 20.2, 109.4 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
N.B. All parameters used are for a double lung transplantation where data was available for both single and double lung transplant
*EVLP Ex-vivo lung perfusion, LTx Lung transplantation, NHSBT NHS blood and transplant