Table 3.
Scenario analysis parameters
| Parameters | Mean | Alpha/Beta | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario 1: Pre-trial model transitions | ||||
| From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Removed from waiting list’ (Standard and EVLP service) | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.08 | 16, 180 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 2 | 0.03 | 2, 67 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.11 | 3, 32 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| From ‘Waiting list’ to Transition to ‘Death’ (Standard and EVLP service) | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.17 | 33,163 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 2 | 0.09 | 6, 63 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.17 | 6, 29 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Receiving a standard lung transplant’ | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.4 | 78, 118 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 2 | 0.38 | 26, 43 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.28 | 10, 25 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Scenario 2: 20% increase in lung transplant activity due to EVLP procedure | ||||
|
Increase in LTx activity due to EVLP procedure (Applied in addition to standard LTx transition in ‘EVLP service’ arm) |
0.2 | 36, 184 | Beta | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Scenario 3: 45% Conversion rate | ||||
| EVLP lung transplant | £119,672 | 75.1, 1644.4 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Scenario 4: 1:1 conversion rate | ||||
| EVLP lung transplant | £89,455 | 42.4, 2174.3 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Scenario 5: Utilities from literature | ||||
| Waiting list | 0.31 | 59.72, 132.93 | Beta | Anyanwu et al. [25] |
| 1-year post standard lung transplant | 0.83 | 1099.12, 257.82 | Beta | Anyanwu et al. [25] |
| 2 years onwards post standard lung transplant | 0.82 | 854.12, 187.49 | Beta | Anyanwu et al. [25] |
| 1-year post EVLP lung transplant | 0.83 | 1099.12, 257.82 | Beta | Anyanwu et al. [25] |
| 2 years onwards post EVLP transplant | 0.82 | 854.12, 187.49 | Beta | Anyanwu et al. [25] |
| Scenario 6: Increase in LTx activity (Excluding EVLP) | ||||
| Pre-trial | ||||
| From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Removed from waiting list’ | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.08 | 16, 180 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 2 | 0.03 | 2, 67 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.11 | 3, 32 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| From ‘Waiting list’ to Transition to ‘Death’ | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.17 | 33,163 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 2 | 0.09 | 6, 63 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.17 | 6, 29 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Receiving a standard lung transplant’ | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.40 | 78, 118 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 2 | 0.38 | 26, 43 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.28 | 10, 25 | Beta | NHSBT [11] |
| Within trial | ||||
| From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Removed from waiting list’ | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.020 | 5.02, 245.98 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 2 | 0.030 | 2.51, 80.32 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.077 | 2.51, 30.12 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| From ‘Waiting list’ to Transition to ‘Death’ | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.150 | 37.65, 213.35 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 2 | 0.212 | 17.57, 65.26 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.077 | 2.51, 30.12 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Receiving a standard lung transplant’ | ||||
| Year 1 | 0.510 | 128, 122.99 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 2 | 0.364 | 30.1, 52.71 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Year 3 onwards | 0.462 | 15.1, 17.57 | Beta | NHSBT [24] |
| Scenario 7: DEVELOP-UK one-year survival post-transplant | ||||
| Standard service | 0.80 | 161.8, 40.4 | Beta | DEVELOP-UK [4] |
| EVLP service | 0.67 | 11.64, 5.73 | Beta | DEVELOP-UK [4] |
| Scenario 8: Same costs of post-transplant inpatient care in both arms (EVLP service = standard service costs plus costs of EVLP procedure) | ||||
| Standard service transplant | £51,778 | 304.2, 175.5 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| EVLP service transplant | £95,750 | 344.74, 269.29 | Gamma | DEVELOP-UK data [4] |
| Scenario 9: Increase in waiting list costs by 120% | ||||
| Increase waiting list cost | £50,830 | 96.04, 529.26 | Gamma | 120% increase |
*EVLP Ex-vivo lung perfusion, LTx Lung transplantation, NHSBT NHS blood and transplant