Table 2.
Model parameters and distributions used in the default model (Ibaraki Prefecture with vaccination coverage at 0%)
| Items | Parameters/distributions (unit) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Reproduction number | Gamma distribution (shape = 24.6, rate = 9.87) (dog); R0 = 2.42 (90% CI 1.94–2.91) | [13] |
| Serial interval | Gamma (shape = 1.41, rate = 0.03) (day) | [13] |
| Dispersion kernel | Gamma (shape = 0.215, scale = 4.08) (km) | [16] |
| Mixing parameter (α) | 0.5 | Estimated |
| Adjusting parameter for dog population (δ) | 0.73 | Estimated |
| Adjusting parameter for dispersion kernel (ε) | 1.13 | Estimated |
| Walking time with dog per day | Beta (shape 1 = 0.01, shape 2 = 0.5) (h) | [17] |
| Delay of initial action | 30 days | Assumption |
| Probability of detection in outbreak investigation | Binomial (P = 0.5, n = Ndet) (dog) | Assumption |
| The number of captured dogs | Poisson (λ = 10) (dog) | Assumption |
| The number of vaccinated dogs | Poisson (λ = 100) (dog) | Assumption |
| Probability of releasing a rabid owned dog | 50% | Assumption |
| Probability that a rabid stray dog selects a stray dog to bite | 50% | Assumption |