Table 6.
Sensitivity analyses
| Incremental budget impact (USD) | Incremental PMPM (USD) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenarios | Change | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Total | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Average |
| Base case* | NA | −$764,287 | −$935,720 | −$943,166 | −$2,643,173 | −$0.0021 | −$0.0026 | −$0.0026 | −$0.0025 |
| Incidence | +20% | −$917,144 | −$1,122,864 | −$1,131,800 | −$3,171,807 | −$0.0026 | −$0.0031 | −$0.0031 | −$0.0029 |
| −20% | −$611,429 | −$748,576 | −$754,533 | −$2,114,538 | −$0.0017 | −$0.0021 | −$0.0021 | −$0.0020 | |
| Total number of patients receiving treatment (1L, 2L+) | +20% | −$917,144 | −$1,122,864 | −$1,131,800 | −$3,171,807 | −$0.0026 | −$0.0031 | −$0.0031 | −$0.0029 |
| −20% | −$611,429 | −$748,576 | −$754,533 | −$2,114,538 | −$0.0017 | −$0.0021 | −$0.0021 | −$0.0020 | |
| IO agent market share (1L, 2L+) | 1L: 50%, 2L: 50% |
−$764,647 | −$647,611 | −$587,928 | −$2,000,186 | −$0.0021 | −$0.0018 | −$0.0016 | −$0.0019 |
| IO 100%; chemo 0% | −$760,505 | −$1,123,745 | −$1,175,855 | −$3,060,105 | −$0.0021 | −$0.0031 | −$0.0033 | −$0.0028 | |
| Duration of 1L non-responders (both IO agents and chemo) | −50% | −$631,582 | −$730,371 | −$737,546 | −$2,099,499 | −$0.0018 | −$0.0020 | −$0.0021 | −$0.0020 |
| Duration of treatment for 1L IO agents | +100% | −$77,524 | −$1,399,158 | −$2,154,193 | −$3,630,874 | −$0.0002 | −$0.0039 | −$0.0060 | −$0.0034 |
| −50% | −$533,432 | −$535,328 | −$543,291 | −$1,612,051 | −$0.0014 | −$0.0015 | −$0.0015 | −$0.0015 | |
| Based on avelumab data | $24,509 | $24,666 | $25,131 | $74,306 | $0.0001 | $0.0001 | $0.0001 | $0.0001 | |
| Based on pembroliz-umab data | $35,105 | $37,567 | $38,138 | $110,810 | $0.0001 | $0.0001 | $0.0001 | $0.0001 | |
| Duration of treatment for 1L pembrolizumab and nivolumab | +300% | −$1,004,355 | −$2,650,493 | −$4,306,481 | −$7,961,329 | −$0.0028 | −$0.0074 | −$0.0120 | −$0.0074 |
| −75% | $710,418 | $712,822 | $723,253 | $2,146,493 | $0.0020 | $0.0020 | $0.0020 | $0.0020 | |
| Duration of treatment for IO agents (2L+) | +100% | −$764,060 | −$935,492 | −$942,935 | −$2,642,487 | −$0.0021 | −$0.0026 | −$0.0026 | −$0.0025 |
| −50% | −$764,400 | −$935,834 | −$943,283 | −$2,643,516 | −$0.0021 | −$0.0026 | −$0.0026 | −$0.0025 | |
Notes:*Base case refers to the results of the main analysis without any additional scenarios and is presented for comparative purposes.
Abbreviations: PMPM, per member per month; NA, not applicable; IO, immuno-oncology; chemo, chemotherapy; 1L, treatment-naïve, first line; 2L+, second-line or later.