Table 2. Cumulative Incidence of Keratinocyte Carcinoma After Solid Organ Transplant, Overall and Stratified by Key Risk Factors.
| Risk Factor | % Cumulative Incidence (95% CI) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-y | 5-y | 10-y | 15-y | 19-ya | |
| Overall | 4.40 (4.01-4.81) | 11.54 (10.88-12.22) | 19.79 (18.85-20.74) | 25.23 (24.04-26.43) | 28.50 (26.76-30.28) |
| Age, y | |||||
| 18-35 | 0.24 (0.08-0.60) | 1.64 (1.07-2.42) | 4.19 (3.12-5.50) | 7.03 (5.47-8.84) | 9.70 (6.96-12.96) |
| 36-50 | 1.97 (1.54-2.50) | 6.52 (5.66-7.47) | 13.93 (12.53-15.40) | 21.03 (19.05-23.08) | 26.19 (22.59-29.93) |
| 51-65 | 5.87 (5.18-6.60) | 15.96 (14.79-17.17) | 27.46 (25.77-29.17) | 33.77 (31.60-35.95) | 36.31 (33.56-39.06) |
| >65 | 13.81 (11.63-16.17) | 28.66 (25.43-31.95) | 40.46 (36.20-44.67) | 43.96 (39.11-48.70) | 46.48 (39.55-53.11) |
| Sex | |||||
| Male | 5.30 (4.77-5.86) | 13.33 (12.46-14.22) | 22.30 (21.09-23.54) | 28.31 (26.77-29.87) | 31.61 (29.28-33.96) |
| Female | 2.74 (2.24-3.32) | 8.24 (7.30-9.25) | 15.18 (13.76-16.66) | 19.62 (17.83-21.49) | 22.93 (20.27-25.69) |
| Race | |||||
| White | 5.66 (5.09-6.28) | 14.45 (13.51-15.42) | 24.06 (22.78-25.35) | 30.23 (28.69-31.78) | 33.37 (31.31-35.44) |
| Black | 0.24 (0.02-1.30) | 1.18 (0.39-2.84) | 2.58 (1.10-5.14) | 2.58 (1.10-5.14) | 2.58 (1.10-5.14) |
| Asian/mixed/other | 0.42 (0.18-0.88) | 1.72 (1.10-2.59) | 2.57 (1.70-3.72) | 3.77 (2.44-5.54) | 3.77 (2.44-5.54) |
| Unknown | 4.39 (3.60-5.29) | 11.76 (10.40-13.22) | 21.20 (19.12-23.35) | 26.95 (24.08-29.89) | 32.84 (27.18-38.61) |
| Pretransplant skin cancer: keratinocyte carcinoma or melanoma | 36.88 (32.45-41.32) | 55.77 (50.73-60.50) | 66.46 (60.55-71.70) | 73.74 (65.79-80.13) | 73.74 (65.79-80.13) |
| Organ type | |||||
| Kidney | 4.11 (3.64-4.63) | 11.20 (10.37-12.06) | 19.17 (17.99-20.37) | 24.75 (23.25-26.29) | 27.30 (25.18-29.47) |
| Lung | 8.10 (6.33-10.14) | 14.67 (12.15-17.41) | 23.61 (20.05-27.35) | 24.95 (21.16-28.91) | 24.95 (21.16-28.91) |
| Liver | 3.54 (2.84-4.34) | 10.39 (9.12-11.75) | 18.24 (16.39-20.17) | 23.72 (21.33-26.19) | 29.86 (25.42-34.42) |
| Heart | 5.68 (4.10-7.61) | 15.04 (12.32-18.02) | 26.67 (22.73-30.76) | 34.27 (29.37-39.23) | 37.18 (31.48-42.87) |
a
End of study.