Fig. 4.

Region-specific annual estimates of per capita poaching rates. Displayed estimates are annual median poaching rates across the sites and years within a Central Africa, b Eastern Africa, c Western Africa and d Southern Africa, each derived from 3000 MCMC samples. Grey lines display estimates from the model fitted to all data, with solid black line showing median estimates and dashed lines outlining 90% CIs. Blue boxes represent estimates from the model (same structure) fitted to training data (2002–13) only, red colour highlights estimates for test data (2014–17). Boxplot centre lines represent median estimates, box bounds first and third quartiles, and whiskers 90% CIs. Crosses represent overall observed poaching rate across the sites within the respective region and will be biased towards sites where more carcasses are found. $\widehat{N}$ represents the sum of the latest population size estimates over all sites within the respective region¹⁵