Table 1. Demographic parameters entered in the stochastic Leslie matrix (mean and standard errors) to project population size of Neanderthals according to different scenarii of Neanderthal time of extinction in Western Europe.
In order to make our model more likely, the demographic parameters used are not stable over such a long time, but they change stochastically every year.
| Subpopulation | Demographic parameter |
Survival rate | Demise in 10,000 yrs |
Demise in 6,000 yrs |
Demise in 4,000 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A, B and C | Infant survival | 0.720 ± 0.10 | = | = | = |
| Sub-adult survival | 0.955 ± 0.05 | = | = | = | |
| Prime age survival | 0.970 ± 0.045 | = | = | = | |
| Adult survival | 0.990± 0.025 | = | = | = | |
| Old survival | 0.980 ± 0.09 | = | = | = | |
| A | Primiparous reproduction | 0.1415± 0.055 | 0.1376 ± 0.055 | 0.1350 ± 0.055 | 0.1300 ± 0.055 |
| Adult reproduction | 0.2700 ± 0.055 | = | = | = | |
| B | Primiparous reproduction | 0.1415± 0.055 | 0.1376 ± 0.055 | 0.1350 ± 0.055 | 0.1300 ± 0.055 |
| Adult reproduction | 0.2700 ± 0.055 | = | = | = | |
| C | Primiparous reproduction | 0.1700 ± 0.10 | 0.1376 ± 0.055 | 0.1350 ± 0.055 | 0.1300 ± 0.055 |
| Adult reproduction | 0.2700 ± 0.055 | = | = | = | |
| A → B | Emigration | 0.0010 ± 0.005 | = | = | = |
| B → A | Emigration | 0.0020 ± 0.005 | = | = | = |
| A → C | Emigration | 0.0001 ± 0.005 | = | = | = |
| C → A | Emigration | 0.0005 ± 0.005 | = | = | = |
| B → C | Emigration | 0.0010 ± 0.005 | = | = | = |
| C → B | Emigration | 0.0050 ± 0.005 | = | = | = |