Table 2. Extinction probability and average time of extinction for the overall Neanderthal population and for each of the 3 subpopulations.
We report the outcome of 10,000 simulated trajectories and the decrease in reproduction rate of primiparous women required for the extinction of Neanderthals in 10,000, 6,000 and 4,000 yrs.
| Population | Survival rate | Demise in 10,000 yrs |
Demise in 6,000 yrs |
Demise in 4,000 yrs |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primiparous reproduction rate | A, B and C | 0.1415 | 0.1376 | 0.135 | 0.13 |
| Extinction probability | A | 0.28 | 0.55 | 0.76 | 0.94 |
| B | 0.29 | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.94 | |
| C | 0.60 | 0.83 | 0.94 | 0.99 | |
| Total | 0.26 | 0.53 | 0.75 | 0.93 | |
| Average time to extinction | A | 11,240 | 7,132 | 4,809 | |
| B | 11,238 | 7,132 | 4,804 | ||
| C | 10,661 | 6,594 | 4,341 | ||
| Total | 11,242 | 7,134 | 4,811 |