Figure 1.

Distribution of stages at diagnosis for (A) clinically detected lung cancer cases, (B) screen‐detected cases, and (C) all cases in the United States between 2015 and 2040 in the absence of low‐dose computed tomography screening and for the 3 screening policies implemented in 2018. All policies assumed a constant 50% adherence to screening. CMS indicates Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services recommendations (annual screening of current smokers and former smokers who quit fewer than 15 years ago, aged 55‐77 years, with a smoking history of at least 30 pack‐years); Ontario, most cost‐effective policy from a study for Cancer Care Ontario (annual screening of current smokers and former smokers who quit fewer than 10 years ago, aged 55‐75 years, with a smoking history of at least 40 pack‐years); USPSTF, US Preventive Services Task Force recommendations (annual screening of current smokers and former smokers who quit fewer than 15 years ago, aged 55‐80 years, with a smoking history of at least 30 pack‐years).