Table 2.
ARCH effect of the observations and residuals of the selected three models with LM test at various lags.
| Lags | Observed values | SARIMA model | NAR model | LSTM model | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LM-test | P | LM-test | P | LM-test | P | LM-test | P | |
| 1 | 54.599 | <0.001 | 1.869 | 0.172 | 0.262 | 0.609 | 0.002 | 0.961 |
| 3 | 73.920 | <0.001 | 2.669 | 0.446 | 2.823 | 0.420 | 0.440 | 0.932 |
| 6 | 72.753 | <0.001 | 3.575 | 0.734 | 2.972 | 0.812 | 3.338 | 0.765 |
| 9 | 71.185 | <0.001 | 4.703 | 0.859 | 14.741 | 0.098 | 5.216 | 0.815 |
| 12 | 73.136 | <0.001 | 14.080 | 0.296 | 11.422 | 0.493 | 7.294 | 0.838 |
| 15 | 71.275 | <0.001 | 14.566 | 0.483 | 30.219 | 0.011 | 10.241 | 0.804 |
| 18 | 69.282 | <0.001 | 15.566 | 0.623 | 32.252 | 0.020 | 13.735 | 0.746 |
| 21 | 67.505 | <0.001 | 20.645 | 0.481 | 34.845 | 0.029 | 0.7462 | 0.881 |
| 24 | 73.785 | <0.001 | 21.094 | 0.633 | 34.774 | 0.072 | 14.815 | 0.926 |
| 27 | 71.487 | <0.001 | 25.263 | 0.560 | 36.360 | 0.108 | 18.172 | 0.898 |
| 30 | 68.830 | <0.001 | 27.984 | 0.571 | 38.706 | 0.133 | 19.899 | 0.919 |
| 33 | 66.153 | <0.001 | 32.378 | 0.498 | 41.990 | 0.136 | 22.538 | 0.915 |
| 36 | 64.210 | <0.001 | 33.766 | 0.575 | 46.280 | 0.117 | 23.631 | 0.944 |