Table 3.
Results of fitting the transmission model. Median and 95% credible intervals (CrI) are given for the 15 parameters of interest. The posterior distribution for each parameter was obtained by running 3 MCMC chains for 250,000 iterations each. The burn-in for the three chains was 80,000, 90,000 and 80,000 respectively. The reminders of the three chains were combined into a single chain with and overall acceptance rate of 16.8%.
| Parameter name | Median | 95% credible interval (CrI) |
|---|---|---|
| Prev.hom | 0.530 | 0.316 - 0.833 |
| Prev.het | 0.607 | 0.306 - 1.08 |
| Sus.age.2 | 0.924 | 0.483 - 1.87 |
| Sus.age.3 | 0.267 | 0.142 - 0.537 |
| Sus.age.4 | 0.155 | 0.0825 - 0.316 |
| HH.rsv.a | 0.0188 | 0.00734 - 0.0401 |
| HH.rsv.b | 0.015 | 0.00578 - 0.033 |
| HH.size | 0.424 | 0.265 - 0.702 |
| High.Asym | 0.0704 | 0.0000692 - 3.15 |
| Low.Sym | 2.48 | 1.22 - 5.57 |
| High.Sym | 6.7 | 2.56 – 16.0 |
| Comm.rsv.a | 0.00338 | 0.00203 - 0.00530 |
| Comm.rsv.b | 0.00615 | 0.00388 - 0.00926 |
| Exp.age.2 | 0.563 | 0.206 - 1.45 |
| Exp.age.3 | 1.87 | 0.788 - 4.26 |