TABLE 2.
Numbers of preventable deaths and percentage reductions in deaths as a result of improvements in AHEI scores from the current diet to the reference healthy diet in men and women aged ≥25 y in 190 countries/territories in 20171
| Men | Women | Both sexes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total deaths (Summation of cause-specific deaths)2 | |||
| Preventable deaths | 6,071,032 (2,412,523, 8,965,512) | 5,522,247 (2,360,919, 8,017,118) | 11,593,279 (4,773,442, 16,982,629) |
| PAF, % | 22.8 (9.1, 33.7) | 24.6 (10.5, 35.7) | 23.6 (9.7, 34.6) |
| Total deaths (Calculated based on RRs of total | |||
| mortality)3 | |||
| Preventable deaths | 6,369,653 (5,082,373, 7,543,363) | 6,120,230 (5,081,667, 7,073,697) | 12,489,883 (10,164,040, 14,617,060) |
| PAF, % | 23.9 (19.1, 28.3) | 27.3 (22.6, 31.5) | 25.5 (20.7, 29.8) |
| Cause-specific deaths | |||
| Cancer | |||
| Preventable deaths | 1,031,548 (333,972, 1,641,670) | 551,585 (79,850, 970,589) | 1,583,133 (413,822, 2,612,260) |
| PAF, % | 18.3 (5.9, 29.1) | 13.6 (2.0, 24.0) | 16.4 (4.3, 27.0) |
| Coronary artery disease | |||
| Preventable deaths | 2,015,386 (1,408,313, 2,542,409) | 1,876,413 (1,237,383, 2,417,194) | 3,891,799 (2,645,697, 4,959,603) |
| PAF, % | 34.7 (24.2, 43.8) | 37.0 (24.4, 47.7) | 35.8 (24.3, 45.6) |
| Stroke | |||
| Preventable deaths | 353,474 (−381,158, 947,220) | 685,945 (201,983, 1,092,552) | 1,039,420 (−179,176, 2,039,772) |
| PAF, % | 11.3 (−12.1, 30.2) | 23.1 (6.8, 36.8) | 17.0 (−2.9, 33.4) |
| Respiratory disease | |||
| Preventable deaths | 710,420 (174,376, 1,108,400) | 958,753 (540,219, 1,239,757) | 1,669,173 (714,595, 2,348,156) |
| PAF, % | 33.2 (8.1, 51.8) | 55.5 (31.3, 71.7) | 43.1 (18.5, 60.7) |
| Neurodegenerative disease | |||
| Preventable deaths | 361,334 (130,880, 542,682) | 34,642 (−380,672, 382,265) | 395,975 (−249,792, 924,947) |
| PAF, % | 34.0 (12.3, 51.1) | 1.9 (−21.2, 21.2) | 13.8 (−8.7, 32.3) |
| Kidney disease | |||
| Preventable deaths | 247,448 (−47,308, 429,402) | 279,764 (−1,046, 436,642) | 527,212 (−48,354, 866,044) |
| PAF, % | 39.1 (−7.5, 67.9) | 49.7 (−0.2, 77.6) | 44.1 (−4.0, 72.5) |
| Diabetes | |||
| Preventable deaths | 274,212 (206,259, 332,458) | 293,277 (239,950, 340,646) | 567,489 (446,209, 673,104) |
| PAF, % | 42.0 (31.6, 51.0) | 41.7 (34.1, 48.4) | 41.8 (32.9, 49.6) |
| Digestive system disease | |||
| Preventable deaths | 790,088 (412,985, 1,039,195) | 455,382 (186,584, 638,129) | 1,245,471 (599,569, 1,677,324) |
| PAF, % | 57.0 (29.8, 75.0) | 50.2 (20.6, 70.3) | 54.3 (26.2, 73.2) |
| Injury (assumed) | |||
| Preventable deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PAF, % | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Infection (assumed) | |||
| Preventable deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PAF, % | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other causes | |||
| Preventable deaths | 287,123 (174,204 - 382,075) | 386,486 (256,668 - 499,345) | 673,608 (430,872 - 881,419) |
| PAF, % | 38.0 (23.0, 50.5) | 35.1 (23.3, 45.4) | 36.3 (23.2, 47.5) |
Values were PAFs (95% CIs) calculated based on comparison in the AHEI scores between global diet in 2017 and the reference healthy diet modified slightly from the target dietary pattern in the EAT-Lancet Commission Report (23). AHEI, Alternate Healthy Eating Index; ; PAF, population attributable fraction; RR, risk ratio.
Total preventable deaths were calculated by summing up all the preventable cause-specific deaths. PAFs were calculated as the percentage of preventable total deaths in total deaths, including those due to infection and injury in the denominator.
PAFs for total mortality were calculated based on the biological effects (RRs) for total deaths (deaths due to injury and infection excluded) from the NHS and the HPFS. Preventable total deaths were calculated by multiplying the total deaths (deaths due to injury and infection excluded) by the PAFs. The final PAFs for total mortality were calculated as the percentage of preventable total deaths in total deaths, including those due to infection and injury in the denominator.