Table 1. Impact of mean climate change summarized by large regions.
| North and Central America | Caribbean and South America | Western and Southern Europe | Eastern and Northern Europe | Northern Africa | Sub-Saharan Africa | Central and Eastern Asia | Western, Southern and South-eastern Asia | Oceania | Global | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percentage of harvested areas where model is significant at p < 0.05 | ||||||||||
| Barley | 61 | 63 | 97 | 65 | 95 | 14 | 90 | 92 | 40 | 74 |
| Cassava | 96 | 52 | NA | NA | 100 | 62 | 34 | 90 | NA | 66 |
| Maize | 89 | 85 | 94 | 58 | 100 | 57 | 75 | 77 | 55 | 77 |
| Oilpalm | 90 | 66 | NA | NA | NA | 55 | 79 | 84 | NA | 72 |
| Rapeseed | 53 | 100 | 96 | 34 | NA | 100 | 75 | 75 | 66 | 66 |
| Rice | 92 | 87 | 93 | 18 | 100 | 77 | 89 | 88 | 100 | 88 |
| Sorghum | 59 | 70 | 100 | 74 | 100 | 39 | 85 | 38 | 100 | 54 |
| Soybean | 87 | 92 | 94 | 22 | 100 | 88 | 56 | 46 | 60 | 81 |
| Sugarcane | 43 | 79 | 74 | NA | 94 | 63 | 76 | 69 | 6 | 70 |
| Wheat | 71 | 63 | 90 | 43 | 100 | 89 | 88 | 90 | 68 | 75 |
| Yield change (kg/ha/year averaged over significant model areas) | ||||||||||
| Barley | -131 | 124 | -726 | -355 | -66 | -64 | 38 | -17 | -94 | -269 |
| Cassava | -270 | 130 | NA | NA | 301 | 275 | 575 | -1070 | NA | -83 |
| Maize | 48 | 129 | -614 | -1839 | -264 | -148 | 396 | 38 | -154 | 2 |
| Oilpalm | -1188 | -130 | NA | NA | NA | -2 | -66 | -3930 | NA | -2551 |
| Rapeseed | -13 | 256 | -400 | 188 | NA | 264 | 143 | 27 | 10 | 14 |
| Rice | -9 | -34 | -233 | -98 | -131 | -75 | 66 | -31 | 335 | -13 |
| Sorghum | 276 | 1 | -1010 | -225 | 136 | 17 | 324 | 20 | -856 | 53 |
| Soybean | 108 | 151 | -709 | -209 | 352 | -20 | 7 | -72 | -240 | 104 |
| Sugarcane | 2986 | 2251 | 3065 | NA | -6085 | -2912 | 4628 | -529 | 5538 | 982 |
| Wheat | -48 | -66 | -537 | -145 | 278 | -48 | 175 | -25 | -125 | -33 |
| Production change (million tons (MT)/year) | ||||||||||
| Barley | -0.41 | 0.05 | -4.85 | -4.58 | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.09 | -0.13 | -0.13 | -10.20 |
| Cassava | -0.04 | 0.15 | NA | NA | 0.00 | 1.90 | 0.05 | -2.98 | NA | -0.92 |
| Maize | 1.73 | 1.72 | -2.35 | -6.14 | -0.29 | -2.03 | 7.00 | 0.53 | -0.01 | 0.17 |
| Oilpalm | -0.11 | -0.03 | NA | NA | NA | -0.01 | 0.00 | -19.64 | NA | -19.79 |
| Rapeseed | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.76 | 0.20 | NA | 0.01 | 0.68 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| Rice | -0.01 | -0.14 | -0.08 | 0.00 | -0.09 | -0.44 | 1.78 | -2.66 | 0.02 | -1.62 |
| Sorghum | 0.70 | 0.00 | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0.92 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.07 | -0.65 | 1.16 |
| Soybean | 2.58 | 4.00 | -0.12 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.04 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 6.22 |
| Sugarcane | 1.59 | 10.84 | 0.00 | NA | -1.25 | -1.59 | 4.38 | -2.51 | 0.13 | 11.60 |
| Wheat | -1.01 | -0.29 | -6.17 | -2.56 | 1.93 | -0.10 | 5.28 | -1.20 | -0.83 | -4.95 |
| Percentage yield / production changed w.r.t current average (at fixed all current harvested areas) | ||||||||||
| Barley | -2.5 | 4.0 | -16.1 | -9.1 | -6.8 | -0.6 | 1.6 | -0.9 | -2.3 | -7.9 |
| Cassava | -2.9 | 0.5 | NA | NA | 18.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -5.6 | NA | -0.5 |
| Maize | 0.5 | 2.7 | -6.3 | -24.5 | -4.3 | -5.8 | 5.1 | 1.0 | -1.2 | 0.0 |
| Oilpalm | -7.2 | -0.6 | NA | NA | NA | 0.0 | -0.4 | -15.9 | NA | -13.4 |
| Rapeseed | -0.4 | 6.8 | -11.4 | 3.1 | NA | 24.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Rice | -0.1 | -0.7 | -3.2 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -3.1 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 4.1 | -0.3 |
| Sorghum | 4.3 | 0.0 | -18.2 | -9.5 | 17.9 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 0.9 | -30.5 | 2.1 |
| Soybean | 3.3 | 5.4 | -21.2 | -3.8 | 10.9 | -1.6 | 0.2 | -3.2 | -6.3 | 3.5 |
| Sugarcane | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | NA | -5.1 | -3.9 | 5.3 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Wheat | -1.3 | -1.6 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 12.0 | -2.3 | 4.5 | -0.9 | -5.8 | -0.9 |
| Percentage kilocalories changed w.r.t current kilocalories consumed from the crop (only countries reporting consumption as per the FAO Food Balance Sheets are included & trade is not accounted). Also see S4 Table | ||||||||||
| Barley | -12.9 | 1.5 | -218.0 | -67.9 | -9.8 | -0.3 | 0.9 | -3.3 | -952.7 | -14.9 |
| Cassava | -14.5 | 0.7 | NA | NA | 17.7 | 3.1 | 0.4 | -5.7 | NA | 0.5 |
| Maize | 2.3 | 1.5 | -10.6 | -50.2 | -2.0 | -4.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | -1.9 | -0.7 |
| Oilpalm | -6.3 | -1.0 | NA | NA | NA | -0.6 | 0.0 | -219.0 | NA | -56.6 |
| Rapeseed | -2.6 | 3.8 | -34.8 | 8.0 | NA | 34.5 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Rice | -0.8 | -0.9 | -6.1 | -0.3 | -2.5 | -2.6 | 1.4 | -1.2 | 5.5 | -0.4 |
| Sorghum | 25.5 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 3.6 |
| Soybean | 6.0 | 21.0 | -3.1 | -4.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -1.0 | -1.3 | 4.7 |
| Sugarcane | 0.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | NA | -3.3 | -2.1 | 5.4 | -0.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Wheat | -2.0 | -1.3 | -8.4 | -2.8 | 6.1 | -0.8 | 2.2 | -0.8 | -11.8 | -0.5 |