Table 2.
Final model predictors of ischemic stroke hospitalization among patients with atrial fibrillation initiating oral anticoagulation in the derivation (MarketScan, 2007-2015) and validation (Optum Clinformatics®, 2009-2015) cohorts
| Derivation Cohort (MarketScan) | Validation Cohort (Optum Clinformatics®) | |
|---|---|---|
| VARIABLE | HR (95%CI) | HR (95%CI) |
| Age, per 1 year | 1.04(1.03,1.04) | 1.04(1.03,1.05) |
| Sex (female) | 1.24(1.13,1.35) | 1.36(1.22,1.51) |
| Prior history of ischemic stroke | 1.90(1.73,2.09) | 1.84(1.65,2.06) |
| Anti-diabetic medications | 1.64(1.47,1.83) | 1.43(1.25,1.64) |
| Antiarrhythmic medications | 0.75(0.67,0.84) | 0.76(0.66,0.88) |
| Beta blockers | 1.23(1.11,1.37) | 1.07(0.95,1.21) |
| Calcium channel blockers | 1.11(1.02,1.21) | 1.04(0.93,1.17) |
| Lipid lowering medications | 0.83(0.75,0.91) | 0.90(0.80,1.01) |
| History of intracranial bleeds | 1.48(1.15,1.91) | 0.96(0.68,1.37) |
| Antiplatelet therapy | 1.17(1.05,1.30) | 1.17(1.02,1.35) |
| DOAC (vs warfarin) | ||
| Dabigatran | 0.94(0.81,1.09) | 0.99(0.84,1.16) |
| Rivaroxaban | 1.04(0.88,1.23) | 0.85(0.71,1.01) |
| Apixaban | 0.72(0.53,0.97) | 0.60(0.45,0.81) |
| Calibration (χ2, (p value)) | 6.1 (p=0.73) | 21.9 (p=0.01) |
The 1-year risk of ischemic stroke can be calculated as 1 − (0.9937)**exp[0.03814*(Age-69.8346) + 0.64192*(Ischemic stroke −0.26356) + 0.21136*(Female sex −0.40083) + 0.49492*(Antidiabetic medications-0.14609) − 0.1923*(Lipid lowering medications-0.56891) + 0.21049*(Beta blockers-0.70587)+ 0.39245*(Intracranial bleed history-0.01529) − 0.2841*(Antiarrhythmic use −0.24112)+0.153*(Antiplatelet use-0.1578) + 0.10354*(Calcium channel blockers-0.39906)− 0.0633*(Dabigatran) + 0.03916*(Rivaroxaban ) − 0.3289*(Apixaban )]