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. 2019 Apr 2;176(1):141–148. doi: 10.1007/s10549-019-05210-2

Table 1.

Women unaffected by breast cancer at entry with DNA collected by combined 10-year risk groups

10-year risk group < 1.5%a < 2% 2–3.49% 3.5–4.9% 5–7.9% 8% + Total
Total in group 1596 3003 3038 1587 1129 605 9362
BC before sampling 23 59 87 76 45 33 300
Number in prospective group 1573 2944 2951 1511 1084 572 9062
% in Group 17.36% 32.49% 32.56% 16.67% 11.96% 6.31% 100.00%
Prospective BC number 10 26 52 39 36 42 195
Prospective DCIS 2 (20%) 4 (15.4%) 8 (15.4%) 5 (12.8%) 5 (13.9%) 4 (9.5%) 26 (13.3%)
Stage 2+ 2 (20%) 8 (30.8%) 13 (25%) 13 (33.3%) 17 (47.2%) 16 (38.1%) 68 (34.9%)
% with prospective BC/total 0.64% 0.88% 1.76% 2.58% 3.32% 7.34% 2.15%
% of all stage 2+ cancers 2.9% 10.3% 19.1% 19.1% 23.5% 25%
Years of follow-up 9845.9 18361.8 18263.7 9304.1 6645.8 3482.1 56057.6
Expected BC by TCDRSNP 11.17 26.14 48.61 38.52 40.89 41.36 195.51
Expected BC by TC 21.23 42.89 54.39 34.04 30.44 22.51 184.27
Rate 10-year 1.02% 1.42% 2.85% 4.19% 5.42% 12.06% 3.48%
Rate 10-year Stage 2+ 0.2% 0.43% 0.71% 1.39% 2.55% 4.59%
OR of stage 2+ incidence Ref 2.15 3.55 6.95 12.75 22.95

aThe 1.5% risk group includes women also in the < 2% group to assess which is the better low-risk threshold