Fig. 3. Avoidable fraction of heat-related deaths if the current trajectory warming of 3°C is brought down to the 1.5° or 2°C Paris Agreement thresholds.

The value of each bar indicates the mean avoidable attributable fraction across 90 climate model ensemble members. The error bars show the 95% eCI that accounts for both the uncertainty arising from internal climate variability and the uncertainty associated with the estimated exposure-response relationship (gray shading in fig. S1). Confidence intervals that do not include 0 indicate statistically significant results at the 5% level.