Table 2.

MLE and parameter estimations of SIR and SIR-MV models using London data.

	era 1904–1912		era 1922–1932		era 1946–1956
parameters	SIR	SIR-MV	SIR	SIR-MV	SIR	SIR-MV
AIC	2731.97	2731.99	2930.45	2822.24	6165.36	6122.93
R2	0.39	0.4	0.26	0.38	0.07	0.1
log-likelihood	−1356.99	−1351.59	−1456.22	−1397.12	−3074.68	−3049.46
R0	32.75	29.7	29.21	8.81	18.31	20.2
b1	0.16	0.16	0.23	0.286	0.07	0.058
ϕ	0.76	0.75	0.71	0.69	0.85	0.85
$\iota$	3.23 × 10−10	6.14 × 10−3	2.46 × 10−5	2.89 × 10−3	6.45 × 10−10	1.29 × 10−5
α1	0.077	0.076	0.043	0.051	–	–
αM	–	0.18	–	1.49 × 10−19	–	–
θ	–	70.6	–	9.77	–	36.2
n	–	0	–	29	–	0
S0	0.027	0.032	0.036	0.111	0.052	0.0458
I0	0.001	7.5 × 10−4	3.9 × 10−4	4.2 × 10−4	6.8 × 10−4	9.6 × 10−4
$I_{\mathrm{M}}^0$	–	0.0011	–	7.57 × 10−5	–	0.0012
R0	0.972	0.966	0.964	0.889	0.947	0.952