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Model fit to calibration targets on (a) ESCC incidence, (b) mD prevalence, (c) MD prevalence, and (d) SD prevalence using good-fitting parameter sets in the Chinese high-risk region. Bold black dashed lines, lower and upper boundaries of observed age-specific epidemiological data; nonbold color lines, model output for 952 selected good-fitting parameter sets. ESCC, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; mD, mild dysplasia; MD, moderate dysplasia; SD, severe dysplasia.
