Table 1.
Model input parameters.
| Parameter | Expected value (SD) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Progression | ||
| Normal → BCH/mD | β 0 = -8.96 (0.461) | Derived from calibration |
| β 1 = 0.20481 (0.01815) | ||
| β 2 = 0.00002 (0) | ||
| β 3 = 0.00836 (0.00134) | ||
| BCH/mD → MD | α 0 = -3.359 (0.171) | Derived from calibration |
| α 1 = 0.03668 (0.0095) | ||
| MD → SD | 15.38% | Derived from calibration |
| SD → Undetected ESCC (TNM I) | 20.94% | [9] |
| Undetected ESCC (TNM I) → Undetected ESCC (TNM II) | 15.38% | Derived from calibration |
| Undetected ESCC (TNM II) → Undetected ESCC (TNM III) | 20.94% | Derived from calibration |
| Undetected ESCC (TNM III) → Undetected ESCC (TNM IV) | 46.65% | Derived from calibration |
| Detection rate | ||
| Undetected ESCC (TNM I) → Detected ESCC (TNM I) | 54.87% | Derived from calibration |
| Undetected ESCC (TNM II) → Detected ESCC (TNM II) | 32.31% | Derived from calibration |
| Undetected ESCC (TNM III) → Detected ESCC (TNM III) | 3.86% | Derived from calibration |
| Undetected ESCC (TNM IV) → Detected ESCC (TNM IV) | 34.32% | Derived from calibration |
| Mortality | ||
| All-cause mortality | Chinese life-table | [10] |
| Disease-specific mortality (TNM I) | Chinese life-table∗ | [10] |
| Disease-specific mortality (TNM II) | 15.15% | [11, 12] |
| Disease-specific mortality (TNM III) | 35.97% | [11, 12] |
| Disease-specific mortality (TNM IV) | 56.47% | [11, 12] |
∗It was assumed to be equivalent with normal population after complete resection.
ESCC, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; BCH, basal cell hyperplasia; mD, mild dysplasia; MD, moderate dysplasia; SD, severe dysplasia.