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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2019 Jun 10.
Published in final edited form as: Ann Intern Med. 2018 May 15;169(1):10–19. doi: 10.7326/M17-2701

Figure 1: Calibration and discrimination of all 9 models in the NIH-AARP and CPS-II.

Figure 1:

Abbreviations: NIH-AARP: NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study; CPS-II: Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Survey Cohort; USPSTF: US Preventive Services Task Force. PLCO M2012: Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Screening Trial Model 2012; LCDRAT: Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool; LCRAT: Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool; LLP: Liverpool Lung Project Risk Model; LLPi: Liverpool Lung Project Incidence Risk Model.

Footnote: Expected/Observed ratios less than 1 indicate underestimation of risk and Expected/Observed>1 indicates overestimation. The Area Under Curve (AUC) statistic examines how well each model discriminates risks between individuals; AUC=1 indicates perfect model prediction and AUC=0.5 indicates poor model prediction equivalent to purely random selection.

AUC for the USPSTF criteria represents identifying lung cancer diagnoses within 5 years of enrolment.