Table 2.
Calibration (Expected/Observed) of the best-calibrated models by race/ethnicity in NIH-AARP.
| Model | Race/Ethnicity | Observed Cases /100,000/year |
Expected Cases /100,000/year |
E/O /100,000/year |
E/O Lower 95% CI |
E/O Upper 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LCRAT |
White | 305.14 | 296.98 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 1.00 |
| African-American | 308.69 | 280.88 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 1.05 | |
| Hispanic | 176.02 | 133.60 | 0.76 | 0.57 | 1.01 | |
| Asian/Other | 214.15 | 154.52 | 0.72 | 0.54 | 0.97 | |
| LCDRAT | White | 175.94 | 183.26 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| African-American | 175.47 | 196.61 | 1.12 | 0.93 | 1.35 | |
| Hispanic | 99.01 | 85.90 | 0.87 | 0.59 | 1.27 | |
| Asian/Other | 116.39 | 92.35 | 0.79 | 0.54 | 1.18 | |
| Bach | White | 325.15 | 323.55 | 1 | 0.98 | 1.02 |
| African-American | 296.51 | 265.37 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.99 | |
| Hispanic | 174.18 | 234.23 | 1.34 | 1.10 | 1.65 | |
| Asian/Other | 223.46 | 251.50 | 1.13 | 0.92 | 1.38 | |
| Pittsburgh | White | 307.03 | 309.71 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 1.04 |
| African-American | 304.63 | 267.97 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 1.00 | |
| Hispanic | 180.30 | 232.58 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Asian/Other | 201.74 | 246.08 | 1.22 | 0.92 | 1.61 | |
| PLCOM2012 | White | 307.03 | 284.03 | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.95 |
| African-American | 304.63 | 300.43 | 0.99 | 0.86 | 1.13 | |
| Hispanic | 180.30 | 90.16 | 0.50 | 0.39 | 0.65 | |
| Asian/Other | 201.74 | 190.57 | 0.94 | 0.72 | 1.25 | |
Abbreviations: NIH-AARP: NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study; LCRAT: Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool; LCDRAT: Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool; PLCO M2012: Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Screening Trial Model 2012
Expected/Observed<1 indicates underestimation of risk and Expected/Observed>1 indicates overestimation.
Footnote: Observed and expected cases/100,000/year are the lung cancer incidence per 100,000 individuals per year for LCRAT, Bach, Pittsburgh, and PLCOM2012 and lung cancer deaths per 100,000 individuals per year for LCDRAT. Observed rates differ because observed events are lung cancers incidence after 1 year of follow-up for Bach, 5 years of follow-up for LCRAT, and 6 years of follow-up for Pittsburgh and PLCOM2012. Observed events are lung cancer deaths after 5 years of follow-up for LCDRAT.