Table 1.
Base case model parameters
| Input parameter | Base case (low, high) | Distribution (parameters*) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clinical inputs | |||
| Pacing related parameters | |||
| Probability of AF | 0.121 (95% CI: 0.109, 0.132) | Beta (7, 51) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| Probability of conduction latency | 0.059 (95% CI: 0.051, 0.068) | Beta (3.5, 55.5) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| Probability of PVC | 0.138 (95% CI: 0.126, 0.15) | Beta (8, 50) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| Probability of variable AV nodal conduction | 0.042 (95% CI: 0.035, 0.050) | Beta (2.5, 56.5) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| Probability of intermittent loss of capture | 0.025 (95% CI: 0.020, 0.031) | Beta (1.5, 57.5) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| % effective pacing with no pacing disruption | 0.951 (95% CI: 0.949, 0.953) | Beta (727.38, 37.68) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| Baseline % effective pacing with AF | 0.695 (95% CI: 0.598, 0.953) | Beta (0.51, 0.22) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| % effective pacing with conduction latency | 0.026 (95% CI: 0.0248, 0.027) | Beta (41.55, 1,564.73) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| % effective pacing with PVC | 0.719 (95% CI: 0.705, 0.733) | Beta (55.3, 21.59) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| % effective pacing with variable AV nodal conduction | 0.396 (95% CI: 0.379, 0.413) | Beta (25.37, 38.65) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| % effective pacing with intermittent loss of capture | 0.871 (95% CI: 0.834, 0.908) | Beta (4.62, 0.68) | Hernandez-Madrid et al18 |
| Healthcare utilization | |||
| Baseline hazard of HF hospitalization per month | 0.02 (±25%: 0.015, 0.025) | LogNormal (−1.69, 0.02) | Mealing et al22 |
| Hazard ratio for risk of HF hospitalization associated with each % increase in ventricular pacing | 0.977 (95% CI: 0.965, 0.990) | Normal (0.977, 0.04) | Hayes et al23 |
| Cost inputs (US$) | |||
| Cost of a HF hospitalization | $15,770 (±25%: $11,828, $19,213) | Gamma (1.04, 0.0001) | Medicare (2014–2016) |
Note: *Parameters: Beta (alpha, beta), lognormal (log (mean), log (standard deviation)) and Gamma (shape, scale).