Table 3.
Overall eight year hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for mortality risk according to updated eight year change in total red meat consumption in Nurses’ Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2010)
| Mortality | Decrease in red meat | Reference (change of <0.15 serving/day)‡ | Increase in red meat | P for trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >0.5 serving/day* | 0.15-0.5 serving/day† | 0.15-0.5 serving/day* | >0.5 serving/day† | |||
| Nurses’ Health Study (n=53 553): | ||||||
| Red meat: | ||||||
| Deaths/person years | 1903/201 574 | 2062/195 475 | 2447/218 138 | 1239/118 300 | 775/71 198 | |
| Model 1 | 0.91 (0.85 to 0.98) | 0.92 (0.87 to 0.98) | 1 | 1.03 (0.96 to 1.10) | 1.12 (1.03 to 1.21) | <0.001 |
| Model 2 | 0.97 (0.90 to 1.04) | 0.98 (0.92 to 1.04) | 1 | 1.06 (0.99 to 1.14) | 1.11 (1.02 to 1.21) | 0.002 |
| Processed meat: | ||||||
| Deaths/person years | 349/35 801 | 1194/130 565 | 5670/539 651 | 946/78 793 | 267/19 875 | |
| Model 1 | 0.98 (0.86 to 1.11) | 0.91 (0.84 to 0.98) | 1 | 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22) | 1.37 (1.21 to 1.55) | <0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.01 (0.89 to 1.14) | 0.97 (0.90 to 1.05) | 1 | 1.10 (1.03 to 1.18) | 1.22 (1.08 to 1.39) | 0.001 |
| Unprocessed meat: | ||||||
| Deaths/person years | 1433/150 705 | 2216/202 641 | 3101/282 839 | 1187/119 073 | 489/49 427 | |
| Model 1 | 0.97 (0.89 to 1.05) | 0.95 (0.90 to 1.01) | 1 | 1.03 (0.97 to 1.10) | 1.07 (0.97 to 1.17) | 0.02 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (0.92 to 1.08) | 1.01 (0.95 to 1.07) | 1 | 1.06 (0.99 to 1.13) | 1.06 (0.96 to 1.17) | 0.21 |
| Health Professionals Follow-up Study (n=27 916): | ||||||
| Red meat: | ||||||
| Deaths/person years | 1124/89 081 | 1008/79 123 | 1569/110 243 | 946/70 096 | 946/60 530 | |
| Model 1 | 0.87 (0.80 to 0.96) | 0.92 (0.85 to 1.00) | 1 | 0.96 (0.88 to 1.04) | 1.03 (0.95 to 1.13) | 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 0.97 (0.88 to 1.07) | 1.01 (0.93 to 1.10) | 1 | 1.04 (0.96 to 1.14) | 1.10 (1.01 to 1.20) | 0.01 |
| Processed meat | ||||||
| Deaths/person years | 331/26 326 | 796/64 705 | 3225/248 483 | 883/50 451 | 358/19 107 | |
| Model 1 | 0.91 (0.79 to 1.05) | 0.94 (0.86 to 1.03) | 1 | 1.11 (1.03 to 1.20) | 1.07 (0.95 to 1.19) | 0.002 |
| Model 2 | 0.95 (0.83 to 1.10) | 1.00 (0.91 to 1.10) | 1 | 1.15 (1.06 to 1.24) | 1.06 (0.94 to 1.19) | 0.01 |
| Unprocessed meat: | ||||||
| Deaths/person years | 856/64 559 | 1150/84 015 | 2008/140 679 | 910/75 291 | 669/44 528 | |
| Model 1 | 0.91 (0.82 to 1.00) | 0.96 (0.89 to 1.04) | 1 | 0.96 (0.88 to 1.03) | 1.09 (0.99 to 1.19) | 0.006 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (0.90 to 1.11) | 1.05 (0.97 to 1.14) | 1 | 1.01 (0.93 to 1.10) | 1.13 (1.02 to 1.24) | 0.12 |
| Pooled results: | ||||||
| Red meat: | ||||||
| Model 1 | 0.90 (0.85 to 0.95) | 0.92 (0.88 to 0.97) | 1 | 1.00 (0.95 to 1.06) | 1.08 (1.02 to 1.14) | <0.001 |
| Model 2 | 0.97 (0.91 to 1.03) | 0.99 (0.94 to 1.04) | 1 | 1.05 (1.00 to 1.11) | 1.10 (1.04 to 1.17) | <0.001 |
| Processed meat: | ||||||
| Model 1 | 0.95 (0.86 to 1.04) | 0.92 (0.87 to 0.98) | 1 | 1.13 (1.07 to 1.19) | 1.19 (1.10 to 1.30) | <0.001 |
| Model 2 | 0.98 (0.90 to 1.08) | 0.99 (0.93 to 1.05) | 1 | 1.12 (1.06 to 1.18) | 1.13 (1.04 to 1.23) | <0.001 |
| Unprocessed meat: | ||||||
| Model 1 | 0.94 (0.89 to 1.00) | 0.96 (0.91 to 1.00) | 1 | 1.00 (0.95 to 1.05) | 1.08 (1.01 to 1.15) | <0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (0.94 to 1.07) | 1.02 (0.98 to 1.08) | 1 | 1.04 (0.99 to 1.10) | 1.09 (1.02 to 1.17) | 0.04 |
The exposure was change in red meat consumption over an eight year period, and the outcome was mortality in the subsequent eight years; that is, changes in red meat consumption in 1986-1994 predicted mortality in 1994-2002, and changes in red meat consumption in 1994-2002 predicted mortality in 2002-10. Model 1: adjusted for age and calendar year. Model 2: model 1 and race (white v other); initial consumption of red meat (in fifths); initial body mass index (<23, 23-24.9, 25-29.9, 30-34.9, and ≥35); family history of myocardial infarction, diabetes, and cancer; updated aspirin use and multivitamin use; menopause and hormone therapy status in women (premenopausal, postmenopausal and hormone therapy never user, postmenopausal and hormone therapy current user, postmenopausal and hormone therapy past user, or missing indicator); and simultaneous changes in other lifestyle factors: smoking status (never to never, never to current, former to former, former to current, current to former, current to current, or missing indicator); initial and changes in physical activity, alcohol consumption, total energy intake, and other food groups, that is, vegetables, fruits, whole grains, and sugar-sweetened beverages (all in fifths).
>3.5 servings/week.
1-3.5 servings/week.
<1 serving/week.